NYJJets
10-4
34
TBD
Soldier Field
33°F
9 mph
38
CHIBears
10-4
TBD
Soldier Field
33°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
18
7
3
28
Bears
10
7
21
0
38
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
36
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
393
322
Total Plays
68
54
Yards / Play
5.8
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.18
Passing Yards
--
202
Comp/Att
24/38(63%)
13/25(52%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.24
+0.10
Rushing Yards
124
120
Rush Attempts
30
27
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
16
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
11
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
50%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
9
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.07
-6.38
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-13
Sack EPA
--
-2.91
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
34
31
Penalty EPA
-3.27
-1.73
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+79
Home nfelo
1,589
Away nfelo
1,593
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+10.0
Home QB Adjustment
+5.6
Away QB Adjustment
-4.4
Market Regression
+0.9
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-4.4
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
4
Yards / Game
12
10
Passing Yards / Game
27
3
Rushing Yards / Game
4
2
EPA
EPA / Play
15
1
EPA / Pass
18
5
EPA / Rush
6
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
1
Interceptions / Game
10
5
Fumbles / Game
5
7
Turnover EPA / Game
28
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
2
4th Down Efficiency
21
17
RZ Efficiency
28
14
Bears Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
5
Yards / Game
29
3
Passing Yards / Game
11
20
Rushing Yards / Game
19
5
EPA
EPA / Play
26
8
EPA / Pass
29
9
EPA / Rush
12
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
29
Interceptions / Game
30
25
Fumbles / Game
8
4
Turnover EPA / Game
7
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
15
4th Down Efficiency
28
12
RZ Efficiency
23
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bears
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U