NYJJets
9-7
24
TBD
Paycor Stadium
21°F
11 mph
14
CINBengals
10-6
TBD
Paycor Stadium
21°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
14
7
3
24
Bengals
7
0
0
7
14
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
34
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
353
281
Total Plays
56
61
Yards / Play
6.3
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.13
Passing Yards
--
110
Comp/Att
12/15(80%)
18/36(50%)
Yards / Pass
--
3.1
EPA / Pass
+0.84
-0.31
Rushing Yards
171
171
Rush Attempts
41
22
Yards / Rush
4.2
7.8
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
18
Passing 1st downs
8
7
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
25%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.71
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-36
Sack EPA
--
-4.02
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
76
--
Penalty EPA
-11.06
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
+2.0
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model44.9%
Spread Pick
Jets+2.5
Expected Value
+7.8%
Cover Probability
56.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-137
Home nfelo
1,445
Away nfelo
1,645
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+13.4
Home QB Adjustment
-9.8
Away QB Adjustment
-23.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-35.4
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-23.2
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-9.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
5
Yards / Game
20
5
Passing Yards / Game
32
12
Rushing Yards / Game
1
8
EPA
EPA / Play
20
7
EPA / Pass
25
10
EPA / Rush
6
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
22
Interceptions / Game
27
11
Fumbles / Game
17
32
Turnover EPA / Game
21
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
13
4th Down Efficiency
1
12
RZ Efficiency
16
9
Bengals Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
1
Yards / Game
24
1
Passing Yards / Game
21
2
Rushing Yards / Game
7
7
EPA
EPA / Play
19
1
EPA / Pass
16
1
EPA / Rush
12
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
26
Interceptions / Game
8
14
Fumbles / Game
21
18
Turnover EPA / Game
17
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
1
4th Down Efficiency
4
3
RZ Efficiency
21
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U