NYJJets
-
12
TBD
New Era Field
65°F
6 mph
21
BUFBills
-
TBD
New Era Field
65°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
6
6
0
12
Bills
0
7
7
7
21
Spread
-7.5
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
214
408
Total Plays
56
72
Yards / Play
3.8
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.03
Passing Yards
176
218
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
16/28(57%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.32
+0.15
Rushing Yards
38
190
Rush Attempts
15
42
Yards / Rush
2.5
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.14
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
23
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
29%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.31
-4.89
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-11
-6
Sack EPA
-2.41
-2.11
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
62
50
Penalty EPA
+0.14
-4.81
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model70.5%
Spread Pick
Jets+7.5
Expected Value
+10.6%
Cover Probability
57.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+114
Home nfelo
1,466
Away nfelo
1,392
Home Field
+31.5
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.5
Home QB Adjustment
+4.8
Away QB Adjustment
-3.8
Market Regression
+10.0
Final Difference
151.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.8
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
16
Yards / Game
28
21
Passing Yards / Game
22
14
Rushing Yards / Game
19
29
EPA
EPA / Play
23
19
EPA / Pass
18
15
EPA / Rush
23
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
9
Interceptions / Game
13
7
Fumbles / Game
23
26
Turnover EPA / Game
20
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
11
4th Down Efficiency
8
24
RZ Efficiency
10
16
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
22
Yards / Game
29
26
Passing Yards / Game
29
5
Rushing Yards / Game
5
24
EPA
EPA / Play
22
22
EPA / Pass
22
22
EPA / Rush
13
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
7
Interceptions / Game
12
18
Fumbles / Game
9
8
Turnover EPA / Game
28
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
10
4th Down Efficiency
30
14
RZ Efficiency
22
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bills
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
8-2
O/U