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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ bills week 1, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
-
12
TBD
New Era Field
65°F
6 mph
21
BUFBills
-
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
65°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
6
6
0
12
Bills
0
7
7
7
21

Spread

BUF logo
-7.5

Total

UNDER
42

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
214
408
Total Plays
56
72
Yards / Play
3.8
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.03
Passing Yards
176
218
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
16/28(57%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.32
+0.15
Rushing Yards
38
190
Rush Attempts
15
42
Yards / Rush
2.5
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.14
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
11
23
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
29%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.31
-4.89
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-11
-6
Sack EPA
-2.41
-2.11
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
62
50
Penalty EPA
+0.14
-4.81

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model69.9%
Spread Pick
NYJ logo
Jets+7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+12.7%
Cover Probability
59.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+111
Home nfelo
1,469
Away nfelo
1,398
Home Field
+31.9
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
-26.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+8.5
Home QB Adjustment
+4.8
Away QB Adjustment
-3.8
Market Regression
+11.1
Final Difference
146.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

J. McCown headshot

J. McCown

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-3.8
Value
Ptile
09/27
-2.9
29
10/04
5.5
84
10/11
9.9
96
10/18
-5.6
13
10/25
1.4
61
11/01
1.1
58
11/30
-0.9
45
09/18
-3.2
25
10/30
-1.0
40
11/27
-3.6
22
T. Taylor headshot

T. Taylor

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.8
Value
Ptile
10/16
3.0
73
10/23
-0.9
41
10/30
0.7
54
11/07
3.0
72
11/20
-3.0
26
11/27
-1.4
37
12/04
-4.9
15
12/11
-4.2
18
12/18
2.0
64
12/24
9.2
96

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Jets logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
23
16
Yards / Game
28
21
Passing Yards / Game
22
14
Rushing Yards / Game
19
29

EPA

EPA / Play
23
19
EPA / Pass
18
15
EPA / Rush
23
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
9
Interceptions / Game
13
7
Fumbles / Game
23
26
Turnover EPA / Game
20
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
11
4th Down Efficiency
8
24
RZ Efficiency
10
16
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Bills logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
27
22
Yards / Game
29
26
Passing Yards / Game
29
5
Rushing Yards / Game
5
24

EPA

EPA / Play
22
22
EPA / Pass
22
22
EPA / Rush
13
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
7
Interceptions / Game
12
18
Fumbles / Game
9
8
Turnover EPA / Game
28
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
10
4th Down Efficiency
30
14
RZ Efficiency
22
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
8
W
W
U
10/30
3
W
W
O
11/06
-4
L
L
O
11/13
-3
L
L
U
11/27
-5
L
W
U
12/05
-31
L
L
O
12/11
6
W
W
U
12/17
-21
L
L
O
12/24
-38
L
L
U
01/01
20
W
W
U
BUF logo

Bills

3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
-3
L
L
O
10/30
-16
L
L
O
11/07
-6
L
L
O
11/20
4
W
W
U
11/27
7
W
L
O
12/04
-14
L
L
O
12/11
-7
L
L
O
12/18
20
W
W
O
12/24
-3
L
L
O
01/01
-20
L
L
U