NYJJets
0-1
37
TBD
New Era Field
60°F
11 mph
31
BUFBills
0-1
TBD
New Era Field
60°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
6
14
7
10
37
Bills
7
3
8
7
25
Spread
+0
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
493
393
Total Plays
71
50
Yards / Play
6.9
7.9
EPA / Play
+0.26
+0.16
Passing Yards
370
--
Comp/Att
24/34(71%)
19/31(61%)
Yards / Pass
10.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.46
+0.38
Rushing Yards
123
86
Rush Attempts
36
19
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
16
Passing 1st downs
18
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
62%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
57%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
7
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.70
-2.76
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-4
--
Sack EPA
-1.63
--
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
50
59
Penalty EPA
-12.68
-9.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model50.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+25
Home nfelo
1,525
Away nfelo
1,526
Home Field
+31.8
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.1
Home QB Adjustment
-2.1
Away QB Adjustment
+4.0
Market Regression
-65.4
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-2.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
16
Yards / Game
26
19
Passing Yards / Game
15
8
Rushing Yards / Game
11
29
EPA
EPA / Play
30
16
EPA / Pass
31
19
EPA / Rush
9
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
4
Interceptions / Game
32
20
Fumbles / Game
16
26
Turnover EPA / Game
3
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
19
4th Down Efficiency
26
6
RZ Efficiency
32
11
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
28
Yards / Game
16
11
Passing Yards / Game
27
12
Rushing Yards / Game
1
13
EPA
EPA / Play
11
23
EPA / Pass
19
30
EPA / Rush
1
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
16
Interceptions / Game
5
29
Fumbles / Game
2
27
Turnover EPA / Game
30
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
19
4th Down Efficiency
10
1
RZ Efficiency
10
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bills
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U