NYJJets
2-1
38
TBD
New Era Field
51°F
16 mph
14
BUFBills
0-3
TBD
New Era Field
51°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
7
10
21
0
38
Bills
0
7
0
7
14
Spread
-5.5
Total
OVER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
443
223
Total Plays
74
46
Yards / Play
6.0
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.34
Passing Yards
--
109
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
12/27(44%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.0
EPA / Pass
+0.39
-0.35
Rushing Yards
272
114
Rush Attempts
48
16
Yards / Rush
5.7
7.1
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
12
Passing 1st downs
13
6
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
47%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
7
--
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
60%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-9.00
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-19
Sack EPA
--
-3.68
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
30
32
Penalty EPA
-4.76
-3.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model67.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-103
Home nfelo
1,435
Away nfelo
1,564
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.1
Home QB Adjustment
-1.4
Away QB Adjustment
+6.8
Market Regression
-1.4
Final Difference
-128.4
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+6.8
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-1.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
28
Yards / Game
12
24
Passing Yards / Game
27
8
Rushing Yards / Game
4
32
EPA
EPA / Play
15
27
EPA / Pass
18
28
EPA / Rush
6
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
18
Interceptions / Game
10
28
Fumbles / Game
5
14
Turnover EPA / Game
28
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
31
4th Down Efficiency
21
29
RZ Efficiency
28
27
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
5
Yards / Game
25
3
Passing Yards / Game
9
20
Rushing Yards / Game
18
5
EPA
EPA / Play
29
8
EPA / Pass
28
9
EPA / Rush
23
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
29
Interceptions / Game
27
25
Fumbles / Game
31
4
Turnover EPA / Game
3
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
15
4th Down Efficiency
16
12
RZ Efficiency
21
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U