NYJ logo
NYJ
2-1
38
14
BUF
0-3
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
51°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
7
10
21
0
38
Bills
0
7
0
7
14

Spread

NYJ logo
-5.5

Total

OVER
36.5

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
443
223
Total Plays
74
46
Yards / Play
6.0
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.34
Passing Yards
--
109
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
12/27(44%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.0
EPA / Pass
+0.39
-0.35
Rushing Yards
272
114
Rush Attempts
48
16
Yards / Rush
5.7
7.1
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
25
12
Passing 1st downs
13
6
Rushing 1st downs
11
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
47%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
7
--
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
60%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-9.00
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-19
Sack EPA
--
-3.68
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
30
32
Penalty EPA
-4.76
-3.09

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market68.5%
Model67.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-101
Home nfelo
1,434
Away nfelo
1,561
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.1
Home QB Adjustment
-1.4
Away QB Adjustment
+6.8
Market Regression
-1.0
Final Difference
-127.9
Model Spread
+5.0

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Jets logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
14
28
Yards / Game
12
24
Passing Yards / Game
27
8
Rushing Yards / Game
4
32

EPA

EPA / Play
15
27
EPA / Pass
18
28
EPA / Rush
6
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
18
Interceptions / Game
10
28
Fumbles / Game
5
14
Turnover EPA / Game
28
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
31
4th Down Efficiency
21
29
RZ Efficiency
28
27
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Bills logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
28
5
Yards / Game
25
3
Passing Yards / Game
9
20
Rushing Yards / Game
18
5

EPA

EPA / Play
29
8
EPA / Pass
28
9
EPA / Rush
23
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
29
Interceptions / Game
27
25
Fumbles / Game
31
4
Turnover EPA / Game
3
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
15
4th Down Efficiency
16
12
RZ Efficiency
21
25