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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ bills week 9, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NYJ logo
NYJJets
4-3
27
TBD
New Era Field
57°F
8 mph
11
BUFBills
5-2
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
57°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
3
17
7
27
Bills
0
0
3
8
11

Spread

NYJ logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
348
289
Total Plays
68
54
Yards / Play
5.1
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.17
-0.15
Passing Yards
222
--
Comp/Att
20/28(71%)
15/31(48%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.34
-0.05
Rushing Yards
126
98
Rush Attempts
39
23
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
24
14
Passing 1st downs
14
7
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
55%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
75%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.13
-11.48
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-1.40
--
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
60
84
Penalty EPA
-5.47
-8.89

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
+2.0

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model45.0%
Spread Pick
NYJ logo
Jets+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.8%
Cover Probability
56.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-110
Home nfelo
1,501
Away nfelo
1,613
Home Field
-14.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.5
Home QB Adjustment
+19.9
Away QB Adjustment
+4.4
Market Regression
+19.2
Final Difference
-34.8
Model Spread
+2.0

Quarterbacks

M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+4.4
Value
Ptile
01/08
-4.1
24
01/16
5.5
85
01/23
3.9
75
09/11
0.4
55
09/18
0.3
54
09/25
4.0
76
10/02
-10.3
2
10/09
-0.5
48
10/17
1.8
65
10/23
1.2
61
R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+19.9
Value
Ptile
12/12
1.8
60
12/19
2.0
62
12/26
-8.4
6
09/11
6.5
88
09/18
6.7
89
09/25
3.9
76
10/02
-0.5
48
10/09
0.8
57
10/16
-0.8
46
10/30
2.8
72

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Jets logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
12
30
Yards / Game
26
25
Passing Yards / Game
18
1
Rushing Yards / Game
22
28

EPA

EPA / Play
21
26
EPA / Pass
25
21
EPA / Rush
13
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
32
Interceptions / Game
23
5
Fumbles / Game
29
12
Turnover EPA / Game
2
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
21
4th Down Efficiency
20
31
RZ Efficiency
4
32
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Bills logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
13
19
Yards / Game
14
4
Passing Yards / Game
15
7
Rushing Yards / Game
14
14

EPA

EPA / Play
17
8
EPA / Pass
19
4
EPA / Rush
6
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
13
Interceptions / Game
31
9
Fumbles / Game
2
2
Turnover EPA / Game
10
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
2
4th Down Efficiency
16
1
RZ Efficiency
11
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/08
1
W
W
U
01/16
7
W
W
O
01/23
-5
L
L
O
09/11
3
W
L
O
09/18
29
W
W
U
09/25
-10
L
L
O
10/02
-17
L
L
O
10/09
-9
L
L
O
10/17
18
W
W
U
10/23
6
W
W
O
BUF logo

Bills

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/19
3
W
W
U
12/26
-31
L
L
U
01/02
-31
L
L
O
09/11
34
W
W
O
09/18
3
W
L
O
09/25
3
W
W
O
10/02
-3
L
L
O
10/09
7
W
W
O
10/16
-3
L
P
O
10/30
23
W
W
U