NYJJets
4-3
27
TBD
New Era Field
57°F
8 mph
11
BUFBills
5-2
TBD
New Era Field
57°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
3
17
7
27
Bills
0
0
3
8
11
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
348
289
Total Plays
68
54
Yards / Play
5.1
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.17
-0.15
Passing Yards
222
--
Comp/Att
20/28(71%)
15/31(48%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.34
-0.05
Rushing Yards
126
98
Rush Attempts
39
23
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
14
Passing 1st downs
14
7
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
55%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
11
11
Red Zone %
75%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.13
-11.48
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-8
--
Sack EPA
-1.40
--
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
60
84
Penalty EPA
-5.47
-8.89
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
+2.0
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model44.7%
Spread Pick
Jets+2.5
Expected Value
+7.8%
Cover Probability
56.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-114
Home nfelo
1,501
Away nfelo
1,616
Home Field
-14.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.5
Home QB Adjustment
+19.9
Away QB Adjustment
+4.4
Market Regression
+19.4
Final Difference
-36.9
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+4.4
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+19.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
30
Yards / Game
26
25
Passing Yards / Game
18
1
Rushing Yards / Game
22
28
EPA
EPA / Play
21
26
EPA / Pass
25
21
EPA / Rush
13
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
32
Interceptions / Game
23
5
Fumbles / Game
29
12
Turnover EPA / Game
2
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
21
4th Down Efficiency
20
31
RZ Efficiency
4
32
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
19
Yards / Game
14
4
Passing Yards / Game
15
7
Rushing Yards / Game
14
14
EPA
EPA / Play
17
8
EPA / Pass
19
4
EPA / Rush
6
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
13
Interceptions / Game
31
9
Fumbles / Game
2
2
Turnover EPA / Game
10
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
2
4th Down Efficiency
16
1
RZ Efficiency
11
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bills
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U