NYJJets
4-5
6
TBD
New Era Field
40°F
9 mph
32
BUFBills
5-5
TBD
New Era Field
40°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
6
0
0
6
Bills
6
10
13
3
32
Spread
-8.5
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
155
393
Total Plays
55
71
Yards / Play
2.8
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.46
+0.08
Passing Yards
92
263
Comp/Att
15/31(48%)
20/32(63%)
Yards / Pass
3.0
8.2
EPA / Pass
-0.60
+0.38
Rushing Yards
63
130
Rush Attempts
18
38
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
22
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
0%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
--
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
100%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-17.29
-0.11
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-40
-12
Sack EPA
-9.39
-2.62
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
35
77
Penalty EPA
-5.41
-7.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+175
Home nfelo
1,600
Away nfelo
1,525
Home Field
+24.3
Base HFA
+44.1
Divisional Adj
-19.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+75.8
Home QB Adjustment
+11.8
Away QB Adjustment
-64.1
Market Regression
+52.4
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
Z. Wilson
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-64.1
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+11.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
3
Yards / Game
31
8
Passing Yards / Game
30
13
Rushing Yards / Game
22
15
EPA
EPA / Play
31
11
EPA / Pass
32
6
EPA / Rush
32
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
32
Interceptions / Game
22
5
Fumbles / Game
32
3
Turnover EPA / Game
3
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
18
4th Down Efficiency
8
15
RZ Efficiency
32
18
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
10
Yards / Game
5
2
Passing Yards / Game
19
4
Rushing Yards / Game
5
25
EPA
EPA / Play
3
4
EPA / Pass
6
3
EPA / Rush
1
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
4
Interceptions / Game
26
5
Fumbles / Game
15
13
Turnover EPA / Game
22
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
12
4th Down Efficiency
7
5
RZ Efficiency
4
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Bills
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U