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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ bills week 12, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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NYJ logo
NYJJets
2-8
3
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
38
BUFBills
5-5
BUF logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
0
0
0
3
Bills
7
7
11
7
32

Spread

BUF logo
-4.5

Total

UNDER
42

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
218
336
Total Plays
57
62
Yards / Play
3.8
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.48
+0.17
Passing Yards
126
220
Comp/Att
17/31(55%)
24/32(75%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.68
+0.32
Rushing Yards
92
116
Rush Attempts
19
29
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
11
21
Passing 1st downs
6
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
20%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.91
--
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-39
-10
Sack EPA
-10.67
-1.54
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
60
24
Penalty EPA
-4.08
-6.06

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model55.8%
Spread Pick
NYJ logo
Jets+4.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+18.0%
Cover Probability
61.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-40
Home nfelo
1,467
Away nfelo
1,400
Home Field
-76.8
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-31.0
Home QB Adjustment
+26.2
Away QB Adjustment
+57.2
Market Regression
+8.7
Final Difference
40.4
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

M. Vick headshot

M. Vick

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+57.2
Value
Ptile
11/11
-1.9
37
12/30
-2.4
34
09/09
4.6
82
09/15
11.1
97
09/19
-3.8
25
09/29
-0.7
46
10/06
0.0
49
10/27
-8.3
6
11/02
1.2
59
11/09
-2.3
33
K. Orton headshot

K. Orton

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+26.2
Value
Ptile
12/18
4.1
77
12/24
0.1
53
01/01
-3.3
29
12/29
4.7
82
10/05
2.4
68
10/12
-1.3
41
10/19
-1.7
38
10/26
1.6
62
11/09
2.0
65
11/13
-2.8
31

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Jets logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
28
4
Yards / Game
22
4
Passing Yards / Game
23
14
Rushing Yards / Game
3
10

EPA

EPA / Play
24
1
EPA / Pass
29
1
EPA / Rush
10
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
15
Interceptions / Game
17
5
Fumbles / Game
10
10
Turnover EPA / Game
15
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
1
4th Down Efficiency
7
14
RZ Efficiency
32
10
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Bills logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
18
24
Yards / Game
24
7
Passing Yards / Game
11
30
Rushing Yards / Game
25
5

EPA

EPA / Play
25
26
EPA / Pass
21
24
EPA / Rush
28
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
8
Interceptions / Game
11
30
Fumbles / Game
15
21
Turnover EPA / Game
24
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
30
4th Down Efficiency
20
1
RZ Efficiency
30
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
5
W
L
U
09/14
-7
L
P
O
09/22
-8
L
L
O
09/28
-7
L
L
U
10/05
-31
L
L
U
10/12
-14
L
L
O
10/16
-2
L
W
O
10/26
-20
L
L
O
11/02
-14
L
L
U
11/09
7
W
W
U
BUF logo

Bills

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/07
3
W
W
U
09/14
19
W
W
U
09/21
-12
L
L
U
09/28
-6
L
L
U
10/05
3
W
W
U
10/12
-15
L
L
O
10/19
1
W
L
U
10/26
20
W
W
O
11/09
-4
L
L
U
11/13
-13
L
L
U