NYJJets
2-8
3
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
038
BUFBills
5-5
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
0
0
0
3
Bills
7
7
11
7
32
Spread
-4.5
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
218
336
Total Plays
57
62
Yards / Play
3.8
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.48
+0.17
Passing Yards
126
220
Comp/Att
17/31(55%)
24/32(75%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.68
+0.32
Rushing Yards
92
116
Rush Attempts
19
29
Yards / Rush
4.8
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.08
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
21
Passing 1st downs
6
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
20%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.91
--
Sacks
7
1
Sack Yards
-39
-10
Sack EPA
-10.67
-1.54
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
60
24
Penalty EPA
-4.08
-6.06
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model55.8%
Spread Pick
Jets+4.5
Expected Value
+18.0%
Cover Probability
61.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-40
Home nfelo
1,467
Away nfelo
1,399
Home Field
-76.8
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-31.0
Home QB Adjustment
+26.2
Away QB Adjustment
+57.2
Market Regression
+8.7
Final Difference
40.4
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Vick
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+57.2
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+26.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
4
Yards / Game
22
4
Passing Yards / Game
23
14
Rushing Yards / Game
3
10
EPA
EPA / Play
24
1
EPA / Pass
29
1
EPA / Rush
10
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
15
Interceptions / Game
17
5
Fumbles / Game
10
10
Turnover EPA / Game
15
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
1
4th Down Efficiency
7
14
RZ Efficiency
32
10
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
24
Yards / Game
24
7
Passing Yards / Game
11
30
Rushing Yards / Game
25
5
EPA
EPA / Play
25
26
EPA / Pass
21
24
EPA / Rush
28
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
8
Interceptions / Game
11
30
Fumbles / Game
15
21
Turnover EPA / Game
24
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
30
4th Down Efficiency
20
1
RZ Efficiency
30
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
2-8
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bills
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U