NYJJets
10-5
17
TBD
New Era Field
35°F
21 mph
22
BUFBills
7-8
TBD
New Era Field
35°F
21 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
7
10
0
17
Bills
7
9
3
3
22
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
300
295
Total Plays
55
73
Yards / Play
5.5
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.06
Passing Yards
178
182
Comp/Att
16/37(43%)
18/28(64%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.14
Rushing Yards
122
113
Rush Attempts
17
43
Yards / Rush
7.2
2.6
EPA / Rush
+0.26
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
18
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
27%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
20
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.86
-5.29
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-3
--
Sack EPA
-1.00
-2.61
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
41
45
Penalty EPA
-5.69
-3.43
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model56.4%
Spread Pick
Bills+3.0
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-7
Home nfelo
1,520
Away nfelo
1,542
Home Field
+32.1
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-17.8
Home QB Adjustment
+11.7
Away QB Adjustment
+29.5
Market Regression
-20.0
Final Difference
-45.0
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+29.5
T. Taylor
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+11.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
15
Yards / Game
10
20
Passing Yards / Game
15
22
Rushing Yards / Game
10
16
EPA
EPA / Play
17
16
EPA / Pass
9
15
EPA / Rush
15
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
11
Interceptions / Game
22
6
Fumbles / Game
15
15
Turnover EPA / Game
24
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
23
4th Down Efficiency
25
1
RZ Efficiency
3
17
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
7
Yards / Game
13
4
Passing Yards / Game
28
9
Rushing Yards / Game
1
2
EPA
EPA / Play
12
4
EPA / Pass
14
9
EPA / Rush
2
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
31
Interceptions / Game
5
5
Fumbles / Game
11
12
Turnover EPA / Game
32
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
3
4th Down Efficiency
24
21
RZ Efficiency
26
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
6-4
SU
4-4-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bills
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U