nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ bills week 17, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

NYJ logo
NYJJets
4-11
14
TBD
New Era Field
54°F
15 mph
40
BUFBills
12-3
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
54°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
0
0
14
14
Bills
7
3
21
7
38

Spread

BUF logo
-10

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
283
348
Total Plays
59
62
Yards / Play
4.8
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.25
+0.21
Passing Yards
171
--
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
17/28(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.34
+0.60
Rushing Yards
112
97
Rush Attempts
21
34
Yards / Rush
5.3
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
20
23
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
6
3rd Down %
44%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-16.19
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-26
--
Sack EPA
-6.37
--
Penalties
16
7
Penalty Yards
120
60
Penalty EPA
-19.97
-7.29

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+231
Home nfelo
1,662
Away nfelo
1,471
Home Field
+21.8
Base HFA
+39.6
Divisional Adj
-17.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+17.7
Home QB Adjustment
+26.0
Away QB Adjustment
+8.3
Market Regression
+10.5
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
+8.3
Value
Ptile
10/14
1.6
60
10/20
-1.6
37
10/27
2.3
65
10/31
3.2
71
11/10
-5.9
12
11/17
-0.1
48
12/01
-3.0
28
12/08
3.0
69
12/15
4.3
76
12/22
3.1
70
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.9
Team Elo Adj
+26.0
Value
Ptile
10/14
6.8
89
10/20
4.4
77
10/27
4.4
77
11/03
2.7
67
11/10
-1.2
40
11/17
6.5
87
12/01
6.6
88
12/08
18.2
100
12/15
15.3
99
12/22
-1.0
42

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Jets logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
24
12
Yards / Game
24
16
Passing Yards / Game
5
24
Rushing Yards / Game
31
13

EPA

EPA / Play
19
14
EPA / Pass
18
23
EPA / Rush
21
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
32
Interceptions / Game
11
10
Fumbles / Game
10
2
Turnover EPA / Game
17
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
30
4th Down Efficiency
28
14
RZ Efficiency
21
17
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Bills logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
2
19
Yards / Game
10
5
Passing Yards / Game
32
4
Rushing Yards / Game
9
17

EPA

EPA / Play
2
24
EPA / Pass
3
19
EPA / Rush
3
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
17
Interceptions / Game
2
27
Fumbles / Game
1
7
Turnover EPA / Game
32
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
14
4th Down Efficiency
2
30
RZ Efficiency
2
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
-3
L
L
O
10/20
-22
L
L
O
10/27
-3
L
L
O
10/31
8
W
W
U
11/10
-25
L
L
U
11/17
-1
L
L
O
12/01
-5
L
L
O
12/08
-6
L
W
O
12/15
7
W
W
O
12/22
-10
L
L
U
BUF logo

Bills

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
3
W
W
O
10/20
24
W
W
O
10/27
21
W
W
U
11/03
3
W
L
O
11/10
10
W
W
O
11/17
9
W
W
O
12/01
25
W
W
P
12/08
-2
L
L
O
12/15
6
W
W
O
12/22
3
W
L
U