NYJJets
4-11
14
TBD
New Era Field
54°F
15 mph
40
BUFBills
12-3
TBD
New Era Field
54°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
0
0
14
14
Bills
7
3
21
7
38
Spread
-10
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
283
348
Total Plays
59
62
Yards / Play
4.8
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.25
+0.21
Passing Yards
171
--
Comp/Att
23/34(68%)
17/28(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
--
EPA / Pass
-0.34
+0.60
Rushing Yards
112
97
Rush Attempts
21
34
Yards / Rush
5.3
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
23
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
6
3rd Down %
44%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-16.19
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-26
--
Sack EPA
-6.37
--
Penalties
16
7
Penalty Yards
120
60
Penalty EPA
-19.97
-7.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+230
Home nfelo
1,663
Away nfelo
1,473
Home Field
+21.4
Base HFA
+39.1
Divisional Adj
-17.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+17.7
Home QB Adjustment
+26.0
Away QB Adjustment
+8.3
Market Regression
+10.5
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+8.3
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+26.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
12
Yards / Game
24
16
Passing Yards / Game
5
24
Rushing Yards / Game
31
13
EPA
EPA / Play
19
14
EPA / Pass
18
23
EPA / Rush
21
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
32
Interceptions / Game
11
10
Fumbles / Game
10
2
Turnover EPA / Game
17
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
30
4th Down Efficiency
28
14
RZ Efficiency
21
17
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
19
Yards / Game
10
5
Passing Yards / Game
32
4
Rushing Yards / Game
9
17
EPA
EPA / Play
2
24
EPA / Pass
3
19
EPA / Rush
3
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
17
Interceptions / Game
2
27
Fumbles / Game
1
7
Turnover EPA / Game
32
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
14
4th Down Efficiency
2
30
RZ Efficiency
2
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bills
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
7-2-1
O/U