NYJJets
4-12
10
TBD
New Era Field
36°F
19 mph
27
BUFBills
10-6
TBD
New Era Field
36°F
19 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
7
3
0
10
Bills
10
3
0
14
27
Spread
-16
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
53
424
Total Plays
46
79
Yards / Play
1.2
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.52
-0.07
Passing Yards
5
--
Comp/Att
7/20(35%)
25/46(54%)
Yards / Pass
0.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.91
-0.01
Rushing Yards
48
170
Rush Attempts
17
33
Yards / Rush
2.8
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
4
25
Passing 1st downs
3
15
Rushing 1st downs
1
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
7%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
1
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
18
Red Zone %
NaN%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
9
--
Sack Yards
-82
--
Sack EPA
-15.69
--
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
27
40
Penalty EPA
-4.43
-6.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-16.5
Current
-16.0
Model
-16.0
Win Probability
Market89.8%
Model89.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+377
Home nfelo
1,690
Away nfelo
1,348
Home Field
+19.9
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
-16.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.1
Home QB Adjustment
-1.2
Away QB Adjustment
-16.3
Market Regression
-11.7
Final Difference
377.9
Model Spread
-16.0
Quarterbacks
Z. Wilson
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-16.3
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
1
Yards / Game
26
1
Passing Yards / Game
13
5
Rushing Yards / Game
25
16
EPA
EPA / Play
25
3
EPA / Pass
29
2
EPA / Rush
13
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
32
Interceptions / Game
29
4
Fumbles / Game
7
10
Turnover EPA / Game
9
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
1
4th Down Efficiency
23
15
RZ Efficiency
20
10
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
32
Yards / Game
5
32
Passing Yards / Game
30
16
Rushing Yards / Game
6
29
EPA
EPA / Play
2
32
EPA / Pass
5
32
EPA / Rush
1
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
4
Interceptions / Game
19
30
Fumbles / Game
10
18
Turnover EPA / Game
26
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
27
4th Down Efficiency
12
26
RZ Efficiency
2
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bills
6-4
SU
4-4-2
ATS
5-5
O/U