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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ bills week 18, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
4-12
10
TBD
New Era Field
36°F
19 mph
27
BUFBills
10-6
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
36°F
19 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
7
3
0
10
Bills
10
3
0
14
27

Spread

BUF logo
-16

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
53
424
Total Plays
46
79
Yards / Play
1.2
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.52
-0.07
Passing Yards
5
--
Comp/Att
7/20(35%)
25/46(54%)
Yards / Pass
0.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.91
-0.01
Rushing Yards
48
170
Rush Attempts
17
33
Yards / Rush
2.8
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
4
25
Passing 1st downs
3
15
Rushing 1st downs
1
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
7%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
1
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
18
Red Zone %
NaN%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
9
--
Sack Yards
-82
--
Sack EPA
-15.69
--
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
27
40
Penalty EPA
-4.43
-6.02

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-16.5
Current
-16.0
Model
-16.0

Win Probability

Market89.8%
Model89.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+379
Home nfelo
1,689
Away nfelo
1,344
Home Field
+19.9
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
-16.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.1
Home QB Adjustment
-1.2
Away QB Adjustment
-16.3
Market Regression
-11.7
Final Difference
377.9
Model Spread
-16.0

Quarterbacks

Z. Wilson headshot

Z. Wilson

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-16.3
Value
Ptile
09/26
-12.5
1
10/03
-0.3
51
10/10
-8.2
7
10/24
-5.1
19
11/28
-8.1
8
12/05
-1.2
44
12/12
-5.4
17
12/19
-6.2
13
12/26
4.0
80
01/02
-1.1
45
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
Value
Ptile
10/31
8.9
95
11/07
-5.3
17
11/14
2.3
70
11/21
-2.4
35
11/25
5.8
87
12/06
-0.5
49
12/12
10.2
97
12/19
-1.8
40
12/26
12.9
98
01/02
-6.5
12

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Jets logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
28
1
Yards / Game
26
1
Passing Yards / Game
13
5
Rushing Yards / Game
25
16

EPA

EPA / Play
25
3
EPA / Pass
29
2
EPA / Rush
13
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
32
Interceptions / Game
29
4
Fumbles / Game
7
10
Turnover EPA / Game
9
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
1
4th Down Efficiency
23
15
RZ Efficiency
20
10
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Bills logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
3
32
Yards / Game
5
32
Passing Yards / Game
30
16
Rushing Yards / Game
6
29

EPA

EPA / Play
2
32
EPA / Pass
5
32
EPA / Rush
1
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
4
Interceptions / Game
19
30
Fumbles / Game
10
18
Turnover EPA / Game
26
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
27
4th Down Efficiency
12
26
RZ Efficiency
2
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/31
3
W
W
O
11/04
-15
L
L
O
11/14
-28
L
L
O
11/21
-7
L
L
U
11/28
7
W
W
U
12/05
-15
L
L
O
12/12
-21
L
L
U
12/19
-7
L
W
O
12/26
5
W
W
O
01/02
-4
L
W
O
BUF logo

Bills

6-4
SU
4-4-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/31
15
W
P
U
11/07
-3
L
L
U
11/14
28
W
W
O
11/21
-26
L
L
O
11/25
25
W
W
U
12/06
-4
L
L
U
12/12
-6
L
L
O
12/19
17
W
W
O
12/26
12
W
W
O
01/02
14
W
P
U