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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ bills week 18, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

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    Advanced stats for receivers
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    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
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    Home Field Advantage for every team
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NYJ logo
NYJJets
3-13
+6.5
TBD
New Era Field
70°F
0
-6.5
BUFBills
11-5
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
70°F
0

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model79.1%
Spread Pick
BUF logo
Bills-6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+30.6%
Cover Probability
68.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+305
Home nfelo
1,609
Away nfelo
1,299
Home Field
+24.4
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
-20.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-29.8
Home QB Adjustment
-106.7
Away QB Adjustment
-76.9
Market Regression
-10.2
Final Difference
231.2
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

B. Cook headshot

B. Cook

Proj. Value
-4.6
Team Elo Adj
-76.9
Value
Ptile
12/14
-6.2
12
12/21
-10.9
2
12/28
-5.8
14
M. Trubisky headshot

M. Trubisky

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
-106.7
Value
Ptile
01/03
2.9
66
01/10
1.4
54
09/11
-1.7
40
09/18
-3.9
24
09/22
1.2
60
10/02
-11.2
1
12/18
1.0
60
12/07
0.8
54
12/16
-4.4
22
01/05
0.0
49

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Bills Defense
Jets logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
28
12
Yards / Game
28
8
Passing Yards / Game
32
1
Rushing Yards / Game
7
29

EPA

EPA / Play
27
19
EPA / Pass
29
6
EPA / Rush
24
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
12
Interceptions / Game
23
11
Fumbles / Game
28
12
Turnover EPA / Game
10
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
24
4th Down Efficiency
28
18
RZ Efficiency
31
19
Bills Offense vs Jets Defense
Bills logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
6
30
Yards / Game
5
23
Passing Yards / Game
13
15
Rushing Yards / Game
2
27

EPA

EPA / Play
2
30
EPA / Pass
7
31
EPA / Rush
3
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
2
Interceptions / Game
11
32
Fumbles / Game
21
29
Turnover EPA / Game
19
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
10
4th Down Efficiency
13
32
RZ Efficiency
6
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
-7
L
L
U
10/26
1
W
W
O
11/09
7
W
W
O
11/13
-13
L
L
U
11/23
-13
L
W
U
11/30
3
W
W
O
12/07
-24
L
L
O
12/14
-28
L
L
O
12/21
-23
L
L
U
12/28
-32
L
L
O
BUF logo

Bills

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
31
W
W
O
11/02
7
W
W
U
11/09
-17
L
L
U
11/16
12
W
W
O
11/20
-4
L
L
U
11/30
19
W
W
U
12/07
5
W
L
O
12/14
4
W
W
O
12/21
3
W
L
O
12/28
-1
L
L
U