NYJJets
4-1
24
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
73°F
4 mph
20
DENBroncos
2-3
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
73°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
7
3
14
24
Broncos
0
10
7
3
20
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
319
346
Total Plays
62
72
Yards / Play
5.1
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.12
Passing Yards
190
201
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
14/34(41%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.03
Rushing Yards
129
145
Rush Attempts
30
37
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
21
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
38%
39%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
18
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-10.96
-6.74
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-8
-8
Sack EPA
-2.97
-1.64
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
74
81
Penalty EPA
-9.63
-3.90
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-37
Home nfelo
1,443
Away nfelo
1,606
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+19.0
Home QB Adjustment
+24.9
Away QB Adjustment
+5.9
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+5.9
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+24.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
32
Yards / Game
12
32
Passing Yards / Game
27
4
Rushing Yards / Game
4
31
EPA
EPA / Play
15
31
EPA / Pass
18
30
EPA / Rush
6
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
10
Interceptions / Game
10
31
Fumbles / Game
5
22
Turnover EPA / Game
28
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
16
4th Down Efficiency
21
27
RZ Efficiency
28
26
Broncos Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
5
Yards / Game
11
3
Passing Yards / Game
5
20
Rushing Yards / Game
26
5
EPA
EPA / Play
17
8
EPA / Pass
12
9
EPA / Rush
30
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
29
Interceptions / Game
7
25
Fumbles / Game
26
4
Turnover EPA / Game
16
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
15
4th Down Efficiency
30
12
RZ Efficiency
13
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
8-2
O/U
Broncos
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U