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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ browns week 10, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
6-2
26
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
46°F
17 mph
20
CLEBrowns
3-5
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
46°F
17 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Jets
3
14
0
3
6
26
Browns
10
3
0
7
0
20

Spread

NYJ logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
37

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
456
303
Total Plays
91
59
Yards / Play
5.0
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.03
Passing Yards
284
196
Comp/Att
27/44(61%)
18/31(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.06
Rushing Yards
172
107
Rush Attempts
45
25
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
28
19
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
12
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
52%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
11
4
3rd Down Attempts
21
12
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-0.72
-7.86
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-15
-9
Sack EPA
-4.20
-2.41
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
70
52
Penalty EPA
-7.83
-3.35

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-100
Home nfelo
1,394
Away nfelo
1,595
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+16.6
Home QB Adjustment
+20.4
Away QB Adjustment
+3.8
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+3.8
Value
Ptile
01/17
-5.1
20
01/24
2.4
65
09/13
-5.5
15
09/19
3.3
71
09/26
5.7
86
10/03
2.0
62
10/11
-4.5
20
10/17
-5.0
18
10/31
-5.2
17
11/07
3.3
71
D. McCoy headshot

D. McCoy

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+20.4
Value
Ptile
10/17
-1.5
40
10/24
-5.3
16
11/07
3.5
72

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Browns Defense
Jets logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
14
12
Yards / Game
12
22
Passing Yards / Game
27
11
Rushing Yards / Game
4
26

EPA

EPA / Play
15
23
EPA / Pass
18
25
EPA / Rush
6
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
16
Interceptions / Game
10
8
Fumbles / Game
5
17
Turnover EPA / Game
28
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
28
4th Down Efficiency
21
31
RZ Efficiency
28
8
Browns Offense vs Jets Defense
Browns logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
31
5
Yards / Game
30
3
Passing Yards / Game
28
20
Rushing Yards / Game
21
5

EPA

EPA / Play
23
8
EPA / Pass
27
9
EPA / Rush
22
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
29
Interceptions / Game
19
25
Fumbles / Game
13
4
Turnover EPA / Game
11
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
15
4th Down Efficiency
1
12
RZ Efficiency
27
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/17
3
W
W
U
01/24
-13
L
L
O
09/13
-1
L
L
U
09/19
14
W
W
O
09/26
8
W
W
O
10/03
24
W
W
O
10/11
9
W
W
O
10/17
4
W
W
O
10/31
-9
L
L
U
11/07
3
W
L
O
CLE logo

Browns

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
14
W
W
U
01/03
6
W
W
O
09/12
-3
L
L
U
09/19
-2
L
L
U
09/26
-7
L
W
O
10/03
3
W
W
O
10/10
-10
L
L
U
10/17
-18
L
L
O
10/24
13
W
W
O
11/07
20
W
W
O