NYJJets
6-2
26
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
46°F
17 mph
20
CLEBrowns
3-5
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
46°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Jets
3
14
0
3
6
26
Browns
10
3
0
7
0
20
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
456
303
Total Plays
91
59
Yards / Play
5.0
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.03
Passing Yards
284
196
Comp/Att
27/44(61%)
18/31(58%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.06
Rushing Yards
172
107
Rush Attempts
45
25
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
19
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
12
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
52%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
11
4
3rd Down Attempts
21
12
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-0.72
-7.86
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-15
-9
Sack EPA
-4.20
-2.41
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
70
52
Penalty EPA
-7.83
-3.35
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-99
Home nfelo
1,395
Away nfelo
1,595
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+16.6
Home QB Adjustment
+20.4
Away QB Adjustment
+3.8
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+3.8
D. McCoy
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+20.4
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Browns Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
12
Yards / Game
12
22
Passing Yards / Game
27
11
Rushing Yards / Game
4
26
EPA
EPA / Play
15
23
EPA / Pass
18
25
EPA / Rush
6
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
16
Interceptions / Game
10
8
Fumbles / Game
5
17
Turnover EPA / Game
28
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
28
4th Down Efficiency
21
31
RZ Efficiency
28
8
Browns Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
5
Yards / Game
30
3
Passing Yards / Game
28
20
Rushing Yards / Game
21
5
EPA
EPA / Play
23
8
EPA / Pass
27
9
EPA / Rush
22
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
29
Interceptions / Game
19
25
Fumbles / Game
13
4
Turnover EPA / Game
11
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
15
4th Down Efficiency
1
12
RZ Efficiency
27
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Browns
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U