NYJJets
6-6
26
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
73°F
5 mph
3
TBBuccaneers
1-11
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
73°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
6
13
0
7
26
Buccaneers
0
0
3
0
3
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
310
124
Total Plays
67
56
Yards / Play
4.6
2.2
EPA / Play
-0.13
-0.65
Passing Yards
135
81
Comp/Att
13/24(54%)
14/33(42%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
2.5
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.86
Rushing Yards
175
43
Rush Attempts
42
20
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.1
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
6
Passing 1st downs
7
3
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
28%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
5
--
3rd Down Attempts
18
14
Red Zone %
33%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-2.09
-14.15
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-3
-12
Sack EPA
-1.44
+0.12
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
63
34
Penalty EPA
-7.02
-4.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-38
Home nfelo
1,340
Away nfelo
1,514
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+51.6
Home QB Adjustment
+17.1
Away QB Adjustment
-34.5
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
K. Clemens
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-34.5
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
27
Yards / Game
20
26
Passing Yards / Game
32
11
Rushing Yards / Game
1
32
EPA
EPA / Play
20
19
EPA / Pass
25
22
EPA / Rush
6
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
20
Interceptions / Game
27
9
Fumbles / Game
17
23
Turnover EPA / Game
21
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
23
4th Down Efficiency
1
26
RZ Efficiency
16
14
Buccaneers Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
1
Yards / Game
28
1
Passing Yards / Game
25
2
Rushing Yards / Game
22
7
EPA
EPA / Play
31
1
EPA / Pass
28
1
EPA / Rush
24
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
26
Interceptions / Game
31
14
Fumbles / Game
2
18
Turnover EPA / Game
4
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
1
4th Down Efficiency
23
3
RZ Efficiency
14
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Buccaneers
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U