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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ chargers week 19, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
10-7
17
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
63°F
8 mph
14
LACChargers
13-3
LAC logo
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
63°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
0
3
14
17
Chargers
0
7
0
7
14

Spread

NYJ logo
+9

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
262
344
Total Plays
63
60
Yards / Play
4.2
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.17
Passing Yards
93
283
Comp/Att
12/23(52%)
27/40(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.22
+0.03
Rushing Yards
169
61
Rush Attempts
39
18
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
14
18
Passing 1st downs
6
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
38%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.07
-6.51
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-15
Sack EPA
-1.17
-2.58
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
37
87
Penalty EPA
-2.88
-6.68

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market77.7%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
NYJ logo
Jets+9.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+16.7%
Cover Probability
59.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+42
Home nfelo
1,538
Away nfelo
1,652
Home Field
+124.6
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+27.6
Home QB Adjustment
+13.5
Away QB Adjustment
-14.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
174.6
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-14.1
Value
Ptile
10/25
1.8
62
11/01
5.1
83
11/15
-3.7
25
11/22
-11.3
2
11/29
-2.5
34
12/03
-2.1
37
12/20
-7.2
10
12/27
-4.4
22
01/03
-3.4
28
01/09
3.1
70
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+13.5
Value
Ptile
11/01
0.5
54
11/08
1.7
61
11/15
5.4
84
11/22
2.7
67
11/29
7.6
91
12/06
7.4
91
12/13
1.7
61
12/20
3.3
72
12/25
5.8
85
01/03
-1.0
44

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Chargers Defense
Jets logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
17
10
Yards / Game
20
12
Passing Yards / Game
32
26
Rushing Yards / Game
1
21

EPA

EPA / Play
20
23
EPA / Pass
25
19
EPA / Rush
6
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
25
Interceptions / Game
27
20
Fumbles / Game
17
14
Turnover EPA / Game
21
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
22
4th Down Efficiency
1
20
RZ Efficiency
16
18
Chargers Offense vs Jets Defense
Chargers logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
4
1
Yards / Game
10
1
Passing Yards / Game
4
2
Rushing Yards / Game
31
7

EPA

EPA / Play
1
1
EPA / Pass
1
1
EPA / Rush
28
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
26
Interceptions / Game
6
14
Fumbles / Game
3
18
Turnover EPA / Game
32
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
1
4th Down Efficiency
13
3
RZ Efficiency
10
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
-5
L
L
O
11/15
-2
L
L
O
11/22
-17
L
L
P
11/29
11
W
W
U
12/03
6
W
W
U
12/13
23
W
W
U
12/20
-3
L
L
U
12/27
14
W
W
O
01/03
37
W
W
O
01/09
10
W
W
O
LAC logo

Chargers

10-0
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/01
8
W
L
U
11/08
1
W
W
U
11/15
8
W
W
O
11/22
29
W
W
U
11/29
29
W
W
O
12/06
7
W
L
O
12/13
3
W
W
U
12/20
3
W
L
O
12/25
25
W
W
O
01/03
3
W
P
O