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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ chiefs week 3, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
1-1
3
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
65°F
9 mph
24
KCChiefs
1-1
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
65°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
3
0
0
3
Chiefs
7
4
0
1
12

Spread

KC logo
-3

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
305
293
Total Plays
66
62
Yards / Play
4.6
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.47
-0.13
Passing Yards
--
221
Comp/Att
20/44(45%)
25/33(76%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.68
+0.27
Rushing Yards
117
72
Rush Attempts
22
27
Yards / Rush
5.3
2.7
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.56
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
17
18
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
50%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
8
1
Interceptions
6
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-39.74
-6.09
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-16
Sack EPA
--
-3.31
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
15
59
Penalty EPA
-1.63
-6.20

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+114
Home nfelo
1,578
Away nfelo
1,543
Home Field
+88.8
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-9.3
Home QB Adjustment
+2.7
Away QB Adjustment
+12.1
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.1
Value
Ptile
11/12
-3.1
28
11/22
-5.2
14
11/29
6.7
89
12/06
6.7
90
12/13
4.5
81
12/19
0.4
53
12/27
7.7
93
01/03
-7.6
5
09/11
-0.8
42
09/15
7.2
90
A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
Value
Ptile
11/29
5.5
85
12/06
1.3
60
12/13
-1.4
41
12/20
-0.5
48
12/27
1.1
57
01/03
-0.6
47
01/09
-0.3
49
01/16
2.8
71
09/11
6.7
89
09/18
-5.5
13

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Jets logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
30
6
Yards / Game
26
23
Passing Yards / Game
15
17
Rushing Yards / Game
11
27

EPA

EPA / Play
30
9
EPA / Pass
31
7
EPA / Rush
9
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
23
Interceptions / Game
32
3
Fumbles / Game
16
1
Turnover EPA / Game
3
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
28
4th Down Efficiency
26
15
RZ Efficiency
32
4
Chiefs Offense vs Jets Defense
Chiefs logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
13
28
Yards / Game
21
11
Passing Yards / Game
21
12
Rushing Yards / Game
19
13

EPA

EPA / Play
12
23
EPA / Pass
16
30
EPA / Rush
12
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
16
Interceptions / Game
8
29
Fumbles / Game
23
27
Turnover EPA / Game
22
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
19
4th Down Efficiency
4
1
RZ Efficiency
28
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/12
-5
L
L
U
11/22
-7
L
L
O
11/29
18
W
W
O
12/06
3
W
W
U
12/13
22
W
W
U
12/19
3
W
P
U
12/27
6
W
W
O
01/03
-5
L
L
U
09/11
-1
L
L
O
09/15
6
W
W
O
KC logo

Chiefs

8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
8
W
W
O
12/06
14
W
W
O
12/13
7
W
L
U
12/20
20
W
W
O
12/27
4
W
L
U
01/03
6
W
L
U
01/09
30
W
W
U
01/16
-7
L
L
O
09/11
6
W
L
O
09/18
-7
L
L
U