NYJJets
1-1
3
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
65°F
9 mph
24
KCChiefs
1-1
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
65°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
3
0
0
3
Chiefs
7
4
0
1
12
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
305
293
Total Plays
66
62
Yards / Play
4.6
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.47
-0.13
Passing Yards
--
221
Comp/Att
20/44(45%)
25/33(76%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.7
EPA / Pass
-0.68
+0.27
Rushing Yards
117
72
Rush Attempts
22
27
Yards / Rush
5.3
2.7
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.56
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
18
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
50%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
8
1
Interceptions
6
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-39.74
-6.09
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-16
Sack EPA
--
-3.31
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
15
59
Penalty EPA
-1.63
-6.20
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+111
Home nfelo
1,576
Away nfelo
1,543
Home Field
+87.7
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-9.3
Home QB Adjustment
+2.7
Away QB Adjustment
+12.1
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+12.1
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
6
Yards / Game
26
23
Passing Yards / Game
15
17
Rushing Yards / Game
11
27
EPA
EPA / Play
30
9
EPA / Pass
31
7
EPA / Rush
9
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
23
Interceptions / Game
32
3
Fumbles / Game
16
1
Turnover EPA / Game
3
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
28
4th Down Efficiency
26
15
RZ Efficiency
32
4
Chiefs Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
28
Yards / Game
21
11
Passing Yards / Game
21
12
Rushing Yards / Game
19
13
EPA
EPA / Play
12
23
EPA / Pass
16
30
EPA / Rush
12
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
16
Interceptions / Game
8
29
Fumbles / Game
23
27
Turnover EPA / Game
22
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
19
4th Down Efficiency
4
1
RZ Efficiency
28
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U