NYJJets
1-7
10
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
57°F
20 mph
24
KCChiefs
4-3
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
57°F
20 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
10
0
0
10
Chiefs
14
7
3
0
24
Spread
-8.5
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
364
309
Total Plays
69
56
Yards / Play
5.3
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.23
Passing Yards
225
196
Comp/Att
24/36(67%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.30
Rushing Yards
139
113
Rush Attempts
30
24
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
23
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
33%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-10
-3
Sack EPA
-5.10
-0.89
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
40
20
Penalty EPA
-3.55
-4.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model76.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+139
Home nfelo
1,538
Away nfelo
1,412
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-59.9
Home QB Adjustment
+4.2
Away QB Adjustment
+64.1
Market Regression
-1.4
Final Difference
204.4
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
M. Vick
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+64.1
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
2
Yards / Game
22
8
Passing Yards / Game
23
20
Rushing Yards / Game
3
28
EPA
EPA / Play
24
12
EPA / Pass
29
8
EPA / Rush
10
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
7
Interceptions / Game
17
30
Fumbles / Game
10
25
Turnover EPA / Game
15
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
5
4th Down Efficiency
7
8
RZ Efficiency
32
1
Chiefs Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
24
Yards / Game
25
7
Passing Yards / Game
24
30
Rushing Yards / Game
11
5
EPA
EPA / Play
9
26
EPA / Pass
12
24
EPA / Rush
4
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
8
Interceptions / Game
1
30
Fumbles / Game
22
21
Turnover EPA / Game
32
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
30
4th Down Efficiency
21
1
RZ Efficiency
9
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U