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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ chiefs week 9, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
1-7
10
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
57°F
20 mph
24
KCChiefs
4-3
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
57°F
20 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
10
0
0
10
Chiefs
14
7
3
0
24

Spread

KC logo
-8.5

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
364
309
Total Plays
69
56
Yards / Play
5.3
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.23
Passing Yards
225
196
Comp/Att
24/36(67%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.30
Rushing Yards
139
113
Rush Attempts
30
24
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
22
23
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
33%
62%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-10
-3
Sack EPA
-5.10
-0.89
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
40
20
Penalty EPA
-3.55
-4.30

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market76.8%
Model76.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+137
Home nfelo
1,536
Away nfelo
1,412
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-59.9
Home QB Adjustment
+4.2
Away QB Adjustment
+64.1
Market Regression
-0.9
Final Difference
204.3
Model Spread
-8.5

Quarterbacks

M. Vick headshot

M. Vick

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+64.1
Value
Ptile
10/28
0.4
52
11/05
-5.8
13
11/11
-1.9
37
12/30
-2.4
34
09/09
4.6
82
09/15
11.1
97
09/19
-3.8
25
09/29
-0.7
46
10/06
0.0
49
10/27
-8.3
6
A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.2
Value
Ptile
12/15
9.5
95
12/22
-6.7
12
01/04
12.7
99
09/07
-7.8
8
09/14
1.4
60
09/21
1.6
62
09/29
6.0
86
10/05
-2.2
34
10/19
0.5
52
10/26
1.7
63

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Jets logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
28
2
Yards / Game
22
8
Passing Yards / Game
23
20
Rushing Yards / Game
3
28

EPA

EPA / Play
24
12
EPA / Pass
29
8
EPA / Rush
10
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
7
Interceptions / Game
17
30
Fumbles / Game
10
25
Turnover EPA / Game
15
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
5
4th Down Efficiency
7
8
RZ Efficiency
32
1
Chiefs Offense vs Jets Defense
Chiefs logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
15
24
Yards / Game
25
7
Passing Yards / Game
24
30
Rushing Yards / Game
11
5

EPA

EPA / Play
9
26
EPA / Pass
12
24
EPA / Rush
4
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
8
Interceptions / Game
1
30
Fumbles / Game
22
21
Turnover EPA / Game
32
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
30
4th Down Efficiency
21
1
RZ Efficiency
9
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
11
W
W
U
12/29
13
W
W
U
09/07
5
W
L
U
09/14
-7
L
P
O
09/22
-8
L
L
O
09/28
-7
L
L
U
10/05
-31
L
L
U
10/12
-14
L
L
O
10/16
-2
L
W
O
10/26
-20
L
L
O
KC logo

Chiefs

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
-16
L
L
U
12/29
-3
L
W
O
01/04
-1
L
L
O
09/07
-16
L
L
U
09/14
-7
L
W
U
09/21
19
W
W
O
09/29
27
W
W
O
10/05
-5
L
L
U
10/19
3
W
W
U
10/26
27
W
W
U