NYJJets
7-7
29
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
015
INDColts
14-0
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
3
9
11
23
Colts
6
3
6
0
15
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
297
286
Total Plays
67
58
Yards / Play
4.4
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.09
-0.19
Passing Yards
95
222
Comp/Att
12/21(57%)
18/32(56%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.11
-0.20
Rushing Yards
202
64
Rush Attempts
44
24
Yards / Rush
4.6
2.7
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
18
Passing 1st downs
5
12
Rushing 1st downs
11
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
44%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-12.44
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-15
-14
Sack EPA
-4.09
-10.11
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
--
15
Penalty EPA
--
-1.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
Colts-3.0
Expected Value
+13.3%
Cover Probability
55.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+218
Home nfelo
1,649
Away nfelo
1,526
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+32.7
Home QB Adjustment
+9.2
Away QB Adjustment
-23.5
Market Regression
-35.1
Final Difference
145.5
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-23.5
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
7
Yards / Game
20
18
Passing Yards / Game
32
17
Rushing Yards / Game
1
20
EPA
EPA / Play
20
17
EPA / Pass
25
16
EPA / Rush
6
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
31
Interceptions / Game
27
15
Fumbles / Game
17
22
Turnover EPA / Game
21
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
30
4th Down Efficiency
1
2
RZ Efficiency
16
13
Colts Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
1
Yards / Game
8
1
Passing Yards / Game
28
2
Rushing Yards / Game
32
7
EPA
EPA / Play
3
1
EPA / Pass
4
1
EPA / Rush
27
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
26
Interceptions / Game
21
14
Fumbles / Game
1
18
Turnover EPA / Game
26
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
1
4th Down Efficiency
13
3
RZ Efficiency
2
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Colts
10-0
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-5
O/U