NYJJets
11-5
17
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
016
INDColts
10-6
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
0
7
10
17
Colts
0
7
3
6
16
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
353
312
Total Plays
70
54
Yards / Play
5.0
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.08
Passing Yards
184
219
Comp/Att
18/31(58%)
18/26(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
8.4
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.35
Rushing Yards
169
93
Rush Attempts
38
27
Yards / Rush
4.4
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.15
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
16
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
10
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
53%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.74
--
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-5
-6
Sack EPA
-1.15
-0.34
Penalties
3
2
Penalty Yards
15
10
Penalty EPA
-1.91
-3.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+35
Home nfelo
1,580
Away nfelo
1,605
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.5
Home QB Adjustment
-1.6
Away QB Adjustment
+2.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-1.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
23
Yards / Game
12
20
Passing Yards / Game
27
15
Rushing Yards / Game
4
27
EPA
EPA / Play
15
29
EPA / Pass
18
21
EPA / Rush
6
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
31
Interceptions / Game
10
30
Fumbles / Game
5
21
Turnover EPA / Game
28
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
23
4th Down Efficiency
21
12
RZ Efficiency
28
16
Colts Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
5
Yards / Game
6
3
Passing Yards / Game
8
20
Rushing Yards / Game
29
5
EPA
EPA / Play
3
8
EPA / Pass
4
9
EPA / Rush
13
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
29
Interceptions / Game
16
25
Fumbles / Game
7
4
Turnover EPA / Game
21
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
15
4th Down Efficiency
7
12
RZ Efficiency
1
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Colts
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U