NYJJets
11-7
17
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
030
INDColts
15-2
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
17
0
0
17
Colts
0
13
7
10
30
Spread
-8.5
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
388
461
Total Plays
60
65
Yards / Play
6.5
7.1
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.19
Passing Yards
--
360
Comp/Att
18/31(58%)
26/39(67%)
Yards / Pass
--
9.2
EPA / Pass
+0.34
+0.45
Rushing Yards
86
101
Rush Attempts
29
24
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
27
Passing 1st downs
13
19
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
43%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.77
-4.98
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-17
Sack EPA
--
-3.39
Penalties
6
1
Penalty Yards
46
--
Penalty EPA
-5.97
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-52
Home nfelo
1,534
Away nfelo
1,659
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+15.0
Home QB Adjustment
-1.5
Away QB Adjustment
-16.5
Market Regression
+99.7
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-16.5
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-1.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
7
Yards / Game
20
18
Passing Yards / Game
32
17
Rushing Yards / Game
1
20
EPA
EPA / Play
20
17
EPA / Pass
25
16
EPA / Rush
6
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
31
Interceptions / Game
27
15
Fumbles / Game
17
22
Turnover EPA / Game
21
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
30
4th Down Efficiency
1
2
RZ Efficiency
16
13
Colts Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
1
Yards / Game
8
1
Passing Yards / Game
28
2
Rushing Yards / Game
32
7
EPA
EPA / Play
3
1
EPA / Pass
4
1
EPA / Rush
27
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
26
Interceptions / Game
21
14
Fumbles / Game
1
18
Turnover EPA / Game
26
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
1
4th Down Efficiency
13
3
RZ Efficiency
2
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Colts
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U