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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ commanders week 11, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NYJ logo
NYJJets
2-7
34
TBD
FedExField
43°F
8 mph
17
WASCommanders
1-8
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
43°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
6
14
0
14
34
Commanders
0
3
0
14
17

Spread

NYJ logo
+1.5

Total

OVER
37.5

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
400
227
Total Plays
66
63
Yards / Play
6.1
3.6
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.31
Passing Yards
285
173
Comp/Att
19/31(61%)
19/37(51%)
Yards / Pass
9.2
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.34
-0.37
Rushing Yards
115
54
Rush Attempts
33
20
Yards / Rush
3.5
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
23
13
Passing 1st downs
15
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
42%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.94
-5.95
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-8
-43
Sack EPA
-2.54
-8.95
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
55
56
Penalty EPA
-6.97
-9.34

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+15
Home nfelo
1,304
Away nfelo
1,329
Home Field
+82.3
Base HFA
+50.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+14.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-42.5
Home QB Adjustment
-22.4
Away QB Adjustment
+20.1
Market Regression
+7.0
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

S. Darnold headshot

S. Darnold

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+20.1
Value
Ptile
12/09
0.1
47
12/15
2.6
68
12/23
6.2
86
12/30
-4.5
20
09/08
-2.2
36
10/13
2.7
70
10/21
-14.9
0
10/27
-10.3
4
11/03
-3.2
30
11/10
2.2
68
D. Haskins headshot

D. Haskins

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-22.4
Value
Ptile
11/03
-3.9
25

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Commanders Defense
Jets logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
31
27
Yards / Game
32
27
Passing Yards / Game
19
23
Rushing Yards / Game
31
31

EPA

EPA / Play
32
29
EPA / Pass
31
27
EPA / Rush
31
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
6
Interceptions / Game
23
13
Fumbles / Game
18
14
Turnover EPA / Game
16
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
32
4th Down Efficiency
27
30
RZ Efficiency
21
24
Commanders Offense vs Jets Defense
Commanders logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
32
16
Yards / Game
31
7
Passing Yards / Game
27
21
Rushing Yards / Game
23
2

EPA

EPA / Play
30
9
EPA / Pass
32
19
EPA / Rush
24
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
4
Interceptions / Game
19
18
Fumbles / Game
10
20
Turnover EPA / Game
11
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
15
4th Down Efficiency
21
2
RZ Efficiency
27
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/30
-35
L
L
U
09/08
-1
L
L
U
09/16
-20
L
L
U
09/22
-16
L
W
O
10/06
-25
L
L
U
10/13
2
W
W
O
10/21
-33
L
L
U
10/27
-14
L
L
O
11/03
-8
L
L
O
11/10
7
W
W
O
WAS logo

Commanders

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/30
-24
L
L
U
09/08
-5
L
W
O
09/15
-10
L
L
O
09/23
-16
L
L
O
09/29
-21
L
L
U
10/06
-26
L
L
U
10/13
1
W
L
U
10/20
-9
L
W
U
10/24
-10
L
W
U
11/03
-15
L
L
U