NYJJets
2-7
34
TBD
FedExField
43°F
8 mph
17
WASCommanders
1-8
TBD
FedExField
43°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
6
14
0
14
34
Commanders
0
3
0
14
17
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
400
227
Total Plays
66
63
Yards / Play
6.1
3.6
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.31
Passing Yards
285
173
Comp/Att
19/31(61%)
19/37(51%)
Yards / Pass
9.2
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.34
-0.37
Rushing Yards
115
54
Rush Attempts
33
20
Yards / Rush
3.5
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
13
Passing 1st downs
15
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
42%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.94
-5.95
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-8
-43
Sack EPA
-2.54
-8.95
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
55
56
Penalty EPA
-6.97
-9.34
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+8
Home nfelo
1,303
Away nfelo
1,334
Home Field
+81.4
Base HFA
+49.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+14.3
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-42.5
Home QB Adjustment
-22.4
Away QB Adjustment
+20.1
Market Regression
+7.0
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.6
Team Elo Adj
+20.1
D. Haskins
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-22.4
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
27
Yards / Game
32
27
Passing Yards / Game
19
23
Rushing Yards / Game
31
31
EPA
EPA / Play
32
29
EPA / Pass
31
27
EPA / Rush
31
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
6
Interceptions / Game
23
13
Fumbles / Game
18
14
Turnover EPA / Game
16
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
32
4th Down Efficiency
27
30
RZ Efficiency
21
25
Commanders Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
16
Yards / Game
31
7
Passing Yards / Game
27
21
Rushing Yards / Game
23
2
EPA
EPA / Play
30
9
EPA / Pass
32
19
EPA / Rush
24
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
4
Interceptions / Game
19
18
Fumbles / Game
10
20
Turnover EPA / Game
11
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
15
4th Down Efficiency
21
2
RZ Efficiency
27
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Commanders
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U