NYJJets
6-5
34
TBD
FedExField
53°F
5 mph
19
WASCommanders
4-7
TBD
FedExField
53°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
7
3
3
21
34
Commanders
7
6
0
6
19
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
266
304
Total Plays
62
71
Yards / Play
4.3
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.12
Passing Yards
--
204
Comp/Att
19/32(59%)
19/46(41%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.07
-0.30
Rushing Yards
101
100
Rush Attempts
30
23
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.19
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
17
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
31%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
--
-5.99
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-17
Sack EPA
--
-5.88
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
40
50
Penalty EPA
-6.96
-7.17
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-69
Home nfelo
1,448
Away nfelo
1,601
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.1
Home QB Adjustment
-1.3
Away QB Adjustment
-1.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
R. Grossman
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
21
Yards / Game
26
12
Passing Yards / Game
18
21
Rushing Yards / Game
22
17
EPA
EPA / Play
21
20
EPA / Pass
25
19
EPA / Rush
13
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
12
Interceptions / Game
23
22
Fumbles / Game
29
28
Turnover EPA / Game
2
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
17
4th Down Efficiency
20
12
RZ Efficiency
4
6
Commanders Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
19
Yards / Game
16
4
Passing Yards / Game
8
7
Rushing Yards / Game
27
14
EPA
EPA / Play
22
8
EPA / Pass
22
4
EPA / Rush
15
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
13
Interceptions / Game
29
9
Fumbles / Game
24
2
Turnover EPA / Game
6
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
2
4th Down Efficiency
29
1
RZ Efficiency
28
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Commanders
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U