NYJJets
8-5
19
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
016
DALCowboys
4-9
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
6
3
0
10
19
Cowboys
3
7
3
3
16
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
372
309
Total Plays
67
56
Yards / Play
5.6
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.23
Passing Yards
299
176
Comp/Att
26/39(67%)
18/33(55%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.19
-0.50
Rushing Yards
73
133
Rush Attempts
26
21
Yards / Rush
2.8
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
15
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
4
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.68
-16.09
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
--
-19
Sack EPA
-1.69
-3.70
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
61
54
Penalty EPA
-6.77
-4.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-61
Home nfelo
1,500
Away nfelo
1,532
Home Field
+70.3
Base HFA
+59.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.7
Net QB Adjustment
-98.6
Home QB Adjustment
-74.2
Away QB Adjustment
+24.4
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+24.4
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-74.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
16
Yards / Game
10
16
Passing Yards / Game
15
14
Rushing Yards / Game
10
22
EPA
EPA / Play
17
26
EPA / Pass
9
21
EPA / Rush
15
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
21
Interceptions / Game
22
30
Fumbles / Game
15
32
Turnover EPA / Game
24
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
17
4th Down Efficiency
25
17
RZ Efficiency
3
8
Cowboys Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
7
Yards / Game
23
4
Passing Yards / Game
27
9
Rushing Yards / Game
8
2
EPA
EPA / Play
25
4
EPA / Pass
31
9
EPA / Rush
5
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
31
Interceptions / Game
32
5
Fumbles / Game
21
12
Turnover EPA / Game
1
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
3
4th Down Efficiency
15
21
RZ Efficiency
29
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Cowboys
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U