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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ cowboys week 15, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
8-5
19
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
16
DALCowboys
4-9
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
6
3
0
10
19
Cowboys
3
7
3
3
16

Spread

DAL logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
41

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
372
309
Total Plays
67
56
Yards / Play
5.6
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.11
-0.23
Passing Yards
299
176
Comp/Att
26/39(67%)
18/33(55%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.19
-0.50
Rushing Yards
73
133
Rush Attempts
26
21
Yards / Rush
2.8
6.3
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
20
15
Passing 1st downs
15
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
4
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.68
-16.09
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
--
-19
Sack EPA
-1.69
-3.70
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
61
54
Penalty EPA
-6.77
-4.01

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-61
Home nfelo
1,499
Away nfelo
1,532
Home Field
+71.1
Base HFA
+60.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.8
Net QB Adjustment
-98.6
Home QB Adjustment
-74.2
Away QB Adjustment
+24.4
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+24.4
Value
Ptile
10/04
-0.7
47
10/18
6.9
90
10/25
3.5
76
11/01
-4.4
18
11/08
1.0
56
11/12
-3.1
28
11/22
-5.2
14
11/29
6.7
89
12/06
6.7
90
12/13
4.5
81
M. Cassel headshot

M. Cassel

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-74.2
Value
Ptile
09/07
1.9
64
09/14
-13.2
0
09/21
-5.0
20
09/13
-5.9
11
10/25
-5.1
15
11/01
-2.1
35
11/08
2.5
68
11/15
-6.6
8
12/07
-3.3
27
12/13
-9.4
2

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Jets logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
10
16
Yards / Game
10
16
Passing Yards / Game
15
14
Rushing Yards / Game
10
22

EPA

EPA / Play
17
26
EPA / Pass
9
21
EPA / Rush
15
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
21
Interceptions / Game
22
30
Fumbles / Game
15
32
Turnover EPA / Game
24
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
17
4th Down Efficiency
25
17
RZ Efficiency
3
8
Cowboys Offense vs Jets Defense
Cowboys logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
31
7
Yards / Game
23
4
Passing Yards / Game
27
9
Rushing Yards / Game
8
2

EPA

EPA / Play
25
4
EPA / Pass
31
9
EPA / Rush
5
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
31
Interceptions / Game
32
5
Fumbles / Game
21
12
Turnover EPA / Game
1
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
3
4th Down Efficiency
15
21
RZ Efficiency
29
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
13
W
W
U
10/18
14
W
W
O
10/25
-7
L
P
O
11/01
-14
L
L
O
11/08
5
W
L
O
11/12
-5
L
L
U
11/22
-7
L
L
O
11/29
18
W
W
O
12/06
3
W
W
U
12/13
22
W
W
U
DAL logo

Cowboys

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
-6
L
L
U
10/11
-24
L
L
U
10/25
-7
L
L
O
11/01
-1
L
W
U
11/08
-6
L
L
O
11/15
-4
L
L
U
11/22
10
W
W
U
11/26
-19
L
L
O
12/07
3
W
W
U
12/13
-21
L
L
U