NYJJets
1-1
31
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
83°F
9 mph
23
MIADolphins
2-0
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
83°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
7
7
7
10
31
Dolphins
0
10
10
3
23
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
35.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
402
436
Total Plays
57
70
Yards / Play
7.1
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.38
+0.15
Passing Yards
--
352
Comp/Att
15/28(54%)
26/45(58%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.51
+0.19
Rushing Yards
146
84
Rush Attempts
29
23
Yards / Rush
5.0
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
24
Passing 1st downs
11
20
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
55%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.49
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-11
Sack EPA
--
-3.17
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
81
52
Penalty EPA
-7.18
-6.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+58
Home nfelo
1,557
Away nfelo
1,550
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.4
Home QB Adjustment
-7.7
Away QB Adjustment
-3.3
Market Regression
+14.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-3.3
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-7.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
13
Yards / Game
12
6
Passing Yards / Game
27
7
Rushing Yards / Game
4
7
EPA
EPA / Play
15
15
EPA / Pass
18
24
EPA / Rush
6
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
11
Interceptions / Game
10
28
Fumbles / Game
5
17
Turnover EPA / Game
28
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
10
4th Down Efficiency
21
5
RZ Efficiency
28
2
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
5
Yards / Game
21
3
Passing Yards / Game
14
20
Rushing Yards / Game
22
5
EPA
EPA / Play
25
8
EPA / Pass
20
9
EPA / Rush
26
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
29
Interceptions / Game
24
25
Fumbles / Game
6
4
Turnover EPA / Game
15
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
15
4th Down Efficiency
31
12
RZ Efficiency
14
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Dolphins
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U