nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ dolphins week 3, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

NYJ logo
NYJJets
1-1
23
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
83°F
4 mph
20
MIADolphins
1-1
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
83°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Jets
0
3
1
10
3
17
Dolphins
7
3
7
3
0
20

Spread

NYJ logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
388
381
Total Plays
79
79
Yards / Play
4.9
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.09
Passing Yards
295
--
Comp/Att
21/45(47%)
16/36(44%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.07
-0.05
Rushing Yards
93
185
Rush Attempts
32
43
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
4
5
3rd Down %
35%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
6
10
3rd Down Attempts
17
19
Red Zone %
20%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.85
-11.26
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-11
--
Sack EPA
-3.68
--
Penalties
9
11
Penalty Yards
108
65
Penalty EPA
-10.31
-9.09

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-40
Home nfelo
1,446
Away nfelo
1,546
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.5
Home QB Adjustment
+1.9
Away QB Adjustment
-1.6
Market Regression
+22.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-1.6
Value
Ptile
11/13
-4.9
19
11/17
-4.4
22
11/27
1.3
62
12/04
0.1
53
12/11
4.5
79
12/18
-6.3
13
12/24
-6.7
11
01/01
-3.4
29
09/09
5.5
84
09/16
-4.9
19
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
Value
Ptile
09/09
-7.8
6
09/16
2.8
68

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Jets logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
28
7
Yards / Game
30
20
Passing Yards / Game
27
29
Rushing Yards / Game
12
12

EPA

EPA / Play
30
14
EPA / Pass
30
17
EPA / Rush
15
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
13
Interceptions / Game
28
27
Fumbles / Game
28
22
Turnover EPA / Game
3
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
9
4th Down Efficiency
17
28
RZ Efficiency
25
2
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Dolphins logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
27
20
Yards / Game
27
6
Passing Yards / Game
19
1
Rushing Yards / Game
17
26

EPA

EPA / Play
22
11
EPA / Pass
25
11
EPA / Rush
19
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
6
Interceptions / Game
10
23
Fumbles / Game
19
5
Turnover EPA / Game
11
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
12
4th Down Efficiency
27
31
RZ Efficiency
11
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
-21
L
L
O
11/17
-4
L
L
U
11/27
4
W
L
O
12/04
15
W
W
O
12/11
27
W
W
O
12/18
-26
L
L
O
12/24
-15
L
L
U
01/01
-2
L
L
U
09/09
20
W
W
O
09/16
-17
L
L
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
11
W
W
U
11/20
27
W
W
U
11/24
-1
L
W
U
12/04
20
W
W
O
12/11
-16
L
L
U
12/18
7
W
W
O
12/24
-3
L
W
O
01/01
2
W
W
U
09/09
-20
L
L
U
09/16
22
W
W
O