NYJJets
1-1
23
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
83°F
4 mph
20
MIADolphins
1-1
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
83°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Jets
0
3
1
10
3
17
Dolphins
7
3
7
3
0
20
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
388
381
Total Plays
79
79
Yards / Play
4.9
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.09
Passing Yards
295
--
Comp/Att
21/45(47%)
16/36(44%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.07
-0.05
Rushing Yards
93
185
Rush Attempts
32
43
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
4
5
3rd Down %
35%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
6
10
3rd Down Attempts
17
19
Red Zone %
20%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.85
-11.26
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-11
--
Sack EPA
-3.68
--
Penalties
9
11
Penalty Yards
108
65
Penalty EPA
-10.31
-9.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-42
Home nfelo
1,446
Away nfelo
1,547
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.5
Home QB Adjustment
+1.9
Away QB Adjustment
-1.6
Market Regression
+22.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-1.6
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
7
Yards / Game
30
20
Passing Yards / Game
27
29
Rushing Yards / Game
12
12
EPA
EPA / Play
30
14
EPA / Pass
30
17
EPA / Rush
15
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
13
Interceptions / Game
28
27
Fumbles / Game
28
22
Turnover EPA / Game
3
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
9
4th Down Efficiency
17
28
RZ Efficiency
25
2
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
20
Yards / Game
27
6
Passing Yards / Game
19
1
Rushing Yards / Game
17
26
EPA
EPA / Play
22
11
EPA / Pass
25
11
EPA / Rush
19
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
6
Interceptions / Game
10
23
Fumbles / Game
19
5
Turnover EPA / Game
11
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
12
4th Down Efficiency
27
31
RZ Efficiency
11
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Dolphins
6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U