NYJJets
0-3
21
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
88°F
17 mph
27
MIADolphins
0-3
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
88°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
3
7
11
21
Dolphins
3
7
14
3
27
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
389
300
Total Plays
58
56
Yards / Play
6.7
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.23
Passing Yards
190
--
Comp/Att
20/27(74%)
17/25(68%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.42
Rushing Yards
199
123
Rush Attempts
29
31
Yards / Rush
6.9
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
19
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
44%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
9
12
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-13.69
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-19
--
Sack EPA
-4.80
--
Penalties
13
6
Penalty Yards
101
40
Penalty EPA
-10.73
-4.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+26
Home nfelo
1,445
Away nfelo
1,436
Home Field
+21.2
Base HFA
+38.6
Divisional Adj
-17.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.9
Home QB Adjustment
-4.9
Away QB Adjustment
-1.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
-4.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
26
Yards / Game
21
26
Passing Yards / Game
23
25
Rushing Yards / Game
3
30
EPA
EPA / Play
16
31
EPA / Pass
17
31
EPA / Rush
23
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
17
Interceptions / Game
2
30
Fumbles / Game
32
6
Turnover EPA / Game
3
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
31
4th Down Efficiency
14
28
RZ Efficiency
17
13
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
28
Yards / Game
26
20
Passing Yards / Game
30
10
Rushing Yards / Game
27
25
EPA
EPA / Play
10
30
EPA / Pass
16
30
EPA / Rush
8
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
10
Interceptions / Game
24
30
Fumbles / Game
7
25
Turnover EPA / Game
12
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
12
4th Down Efficiency
22
31
RZ Efficiency
2
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Dolphins
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U