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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ dolphins week 4, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
0-3
21
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
88°F
17 mph
27
MIADolphins
0-3
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
88°F
17 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
3
7
11
21
Dolphins
3
7
14
3
27

Spread

MIA logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
389
300
Total Plays
58
56
Yards / Play
6.7
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.23
Passing Yards
190
--
Comp/Att
20/27(74%)
17/25(68%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
--
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.42
Rushing Yards
199
123
Rush Attempts
29
31
Yards / Rush
6.9
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
23
19
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
44%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
9
12
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-13.69
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-19
--
Sack EPA
-4.80
--
Penalties
13
6
Penalty Yards
101
40
Penalty EPA
-10.73
-4.01

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+40
Home nfelo
1,448
Away nfelo
1,440
Home Field
+35.5
Base HFA
+39.5
Divisional Adj
-17.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.9
Home QB Adjustment
-4.9
Away QB Adjustment
-1.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
Value
Ptile
12/31
3.1
71
01/07
-6.3
13
09/08
-1.1
41
09/15
-2.7
29
09/22
1.9
62
09/29
6.3
86
10/06
-1.9
35
10/13
0.8
53
09/07
7.7
93
09/14
-6.7
9
T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-4.9
Value
Ptile
11/11
-3.3
26
11/17
7.0
89
11/24
8.1
93
11/28
6.3
86
12/08
9.2
95
12/15
-5.1
15
12/22
2.7
67
09/07
-9.0
3
09/14
1.0
58
09/18
-0.0
51

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Jets logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
29
24
Yards / Game
29
22
Passing Yards / Game
32
26
Rushing Yards / Game
11
27

EPA

EPA / Play
27
26
EPA / Pass
28
26
EPA / Rush
29
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
16
Interceptions / Game
22
23
Fumbles / Game
28
6
Turnover EPA / Game
14
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
17
4th Down Efficiency
28
28
RZ Efficiency
31
22
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Dolphins logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
25
31
Yards / Game
25
25
Passing Yards / Game
31
12
Rushing Yards / Game
12
29

EPA

EPA / Play
20
31
EPA / Pass
17
32
EPA / Rush
16
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
3
Interceptions / Game
29
32
Fumbles / Game
12
31
Turnover EPA / Game
16
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
10
4th Down Efficiency
24
29
RZ Efficiency
19
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
-1
L
L
O
12/01
-5
L
L
O
12/08
-6
L
W
O
12/15
7
W
W
O
12/22
-10
L
L
U
12/29
-26
L
L
O
01/05
12
W
W
O
09/07
-2
L
W
O
09/14
-20
L
L
U
09/21
-2
L
W
O
MIA logo

Dolphins

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
19
W
W
O
11/28
-13
L
L
U
12/08
6
W
L
O
12/15
-8
L
L
U
12/22
12
W
W
O
12/29
17
W
W
U
01/05
-12
L
L
O
09/07
-25
L
L
U
09/14
-6
L
L
O
09/18
-10
L
W
O