NYJJets
3-1
27
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
83°F
7 mph
31
MIADolphins
1-3
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
83°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
7
6
0
14
27
Dolphins
10
0
0
21
31
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
36
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
309
413
Total Plays
55
64
Yards / Play
5.6
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.33
+0.32
Passing Yards
171
--
Comp/Att
12/24(50%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.16
+0.52
Rushing Yards
138
151
Rush Attempts
30
36
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.22
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
23
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
10
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
36%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-1
--
Sack EPA
-0.68
--
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
56
112
Penalty EPA
-9.49
-9.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model51.9%
Spread Pick
Dolphins+3.0
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+33
Home nfelo
1,506
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-22.8
Home QB Adjustment
-34.7
Away QB Adjustment
-11.9
Market Regression
-26.0
Final Difference
-13.2
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-11.9
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-34.7
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
25
Yards / Game
20
21
Passing Yards / Game
32
29
Rushing Yards / Game
1
17
EPA
EPA / Play
20
28
EPA / Pass
25
21
EPA / Rush
6
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
14
Interceptions / Game
27
16
Fumbles / Game
17
30
Turnover EPA / Game
21
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
5
4th Down Efficiency
1
22
RZ Efficiency
16
8
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
1
Yards / Game
17
1
Passing Yards / Game
23
2
Rushing Yards / Game
5
7
EPA
EPA / Play
12
1
EPA / Pass
19
1
EPA / Rush
3
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
26
Interceptions / Game
24
14
Fumbles / Game
8
18
Turnover EPA / Game
8
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
1
4th Down Efficiency
2
3
RZ Efficiency
5
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
1-3-6
O/U
Dolphins
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
2-2-6
O/U