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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ dolphins week 5, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NYJ logo
NYJJets
3-1
27
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
83°F
7 mph
31
MIADolphins
1-3
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
83°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
7
6
0
14
27
Dolphins
10
0
0
21
31

Spread

MIA logo
+3

Total

OVER
36

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
309
413
Total Plays
55
64
Yards / Play
5.6
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.33
+0.32
Passing Yards
171
--
Comp/Att
12/24(50%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.16
+0.52
Rushing Yards
138
151
Rush Attempts
30
36
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.22
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
20
23
Passing 1st downs
8
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
10
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
36%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-1
--
Sack EPA
-0.68
--
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
56
112
Penalty EPA
-9.49
-9.64

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model51.8%
Spread Pick
MIA logo
Dolphins+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+33
Home nfelo
1,505
Away nfelo
1,505
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-22.8
Home QB Adjustment
-34.7
Away QB Adjustment
-11.9
Market Regression
-19.2
Final Difference
-12.6
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-11.9
Value
Ptile
09/13
1.1
56
09/20
-1.1
43
09/27
-0.6
46
10/04
-10.1
2
C. Henne headshot

C. Henne

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-34.7
Value
Ptile
10/04
-5.7
16

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Jets logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
17
25
Yards / Game
20
21
Passing Yards / Game
32
29
Rushing Yards / Game
1
17

EPA

EPA / Play
20
28
EPA / Pass
25
21
EPA / Rush
6
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
14
Interceptions / Game
27
16
Fumbles / Game
17
30
Turnover EPA / Game
21
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
5
4th Down Efficiency
1
22
RZ Efficiency
16
8
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Dolphins logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
14
1
Yards / Game
17
1
Passing Yards / Game
23
2
Rushing Yards / Game
5
7

EPA

EPA / Play
12
1
EPA / Pass
19
1
EPA / Rush
3
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
26
Interceptions / Game
24
14
Fumbles / Game
8
18
Turnover EPA / Game
8
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
1
4th Down Efficiency
2
3
RZ Efficiency
5
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
1-3-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/23
21
W
W
P
11/30
-17
L
L
P
12/07
-10
L
L
P
12/14
4
W
L
P
12/21
-10
L
L
P
12/28
-7
L
L
P
09/13
17
W
W
U
09/20
7
W
W
U
09/27
7
W
W
O
10/04
-14
L
L
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
2-2-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/30
4
W
L
P
12/07
13
W
W
P
12/14
5
W
L
P
12/21
7
W
W
P
12/28
7
W
W
P
01/04
-18
L
L
P
09/13
-12
L
L
U
09/21
-4
L
L
O
09/27
-10
L
L
U
10/04
28
W
W
O