NYJJets
3-3
28
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
86°F
18 mph
31
MIADolphins
3-2
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
86°F
18 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
14
7
7
0
28
Dolphins
7
7
0
17
31
Spread
3
P
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
272
357
Total Plays
52
65
Yards / Play
5.2
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.00
Passing Yards
180
304
Comp/Att
17/27(63%)
25/37(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.09
Rushing Yards
92
53
Rush Attempts
22
25
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.1
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
25
Passing 1st downs
10
16
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
6
3rd Down %
36%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.41
-11.13
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-29
-22
Sack EPA
-5.63
-2.63
Penalties
12
9
Penalty Yards
124
76
Penalty EPA
-11.82
-2.29
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+83
Home nfelo
1,449
Away nfelo
1,395
Home Field
+51.2
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
-25.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-22.6
Home QB Adjustment
-23.4
Away QB Adjustment
-0.7
Market Regression
-39.9
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. McCown
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-23.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
29
Yards / Game
28
16
Passing Yards / Game
22
19
Rushing Yards / Game
19
14
EPA
EPA / Play
23
20
EPA / Pass
18
28
EPA / Rush
23
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
20
Interceptions / Game
13
28
Fumbles / Game
23
23
Turnover EPA / Game
20
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
9
4th Down Efficiency
8
2
RZ Efficiency
10
29
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
22
Yards / Game
25
26
Passing Yards / Game
21
5
Rushing Yards / Game
29
24
EPA
EPA / Play
28
22
EPA / Pass
26
22
EPA / Rush
30
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
7
Interceptions / Game
30
18
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
3
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
10
4th Down Efficiency
28
14
RZ Efficiency
19
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Dolphins
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U