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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ dolphins week 7, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
3-3
28
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
86°F
18 mph
31
MIADolphins
3-2
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
86°F
18 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
14
7
7
0
28
Dolphins
7
7
0
17
31

Spread

NYJ logo
MIA logo
3
P

Total

OVER
40

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
272
357
Total Plays
52
65
Yards / Play
5.2
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.02
-0.00
Passing Yards
180
304
Comp/Att
17/27(63%)
25/37(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.09
Rushing Yards
92
53
Rush Attempts
22
25
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.1
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
16
25
Passing 1st downs
10
16
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
6
3rd Down %
36%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.41
-11.13
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-29
-22
Sack EPA
-5.63
-2.63
Penalties
12
9
Penalty Yards
124
76
Penalty EPA
-11.82
-2.29

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+85
Home nfelo
1,451
Away nfelo
1,395
Home Field
+51.9
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-22.6
Home QB Adjustment
-23.4
Away QB Adjustment
-0.7
Market Regression
-39.9
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

J. McCown headshot

J. McCown

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.7
Value
Ptile
11/30
-0.9
45
09/18
-3.2
25
10/30
-1.0
40
11/27
-3.6
22
09/10
-2.7
34
09/17
-0.6
48
09/24
1.2
61
10/01
-4.5
22
10/08
-2.4
36
10/15
-0.0
52
J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-23.4
Value
Ptile
09/11
-5.2
15
09/19
-6.4
10
10/31
3.0
73
11/13
-9.5
3
11/20
-4.4
17
09/17
1.2
61
09/24
-3.9
25
10/01
-7.2
12
10/08
-7.5
10
10/15
-1.8
40

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Jets logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
23
29
Yards / Game
28
16
Passing Yards / Game
22
19
Rushing Yards / Game
19
14

EPA

EPA / Play
23
20
EPA / Pass
18
28
EPA / Rush
23
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
20
Interceptions / Game
13
28
Fumbles / Game
23
23
Turnover EPA / Game
20
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
9
4th Down Efficiency
8
2
RZ Efficiency
10
29
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Dolphins logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
28
22
Yards / Game
25
26
Passing Yards / Game
21
5
Rushing Yards / Game
29
24

EPA

EPA / Play
28
22
EPA / Pass
26
22
EPA / Rush
30
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
7
Interceptions / Game
30
18
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
3
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
10
4th Down Efficiency
28
14
RZ Efficiency
19
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
6
W
W
U
12/17
-21
L
L
O
12/24
-38
L
L
U
01/01
20
W
W
U
09/10
-9
L
L
U
09/17
-25
L
L
O
09/24
14
W
W
U
10/01
3
W
W
O
10/08
3
W
W
U
10/15
-7
L
W
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
3
W
W
O
12/17
21
W
W
O
12/24
3
W
W
O
01/01
-21
L
L
O
01/08
-18
L
L
U
09/17
2
W
W
U
09/24
-14
L
L
U
10/01
-20
L
L
U
10/08
6
W
W
U
10/15
3
W
W
U