NYJJets
1-6
18
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
85°F
11 mph
26
MIADolphins
0-7
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
85°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
7
3
3
3
16
Dolphins
0
21
3
0
24
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
321
316
Total Plays
63
64
Yards / Play
5.1
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.06
Passing Yards
238
266
Comp/Att
27/39(69%)
24/36(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.36
Rushing Yards
83
50
Rush Attempts
21
24
Yards / Rush
4.0
2.1
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
22
Passing 1st downs
13
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
36%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.93
--
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-22
-22
Sack EPA
-4.23
-6.72
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
105
51
Penalty EPA
-10.52
-6.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-48
Home nfelo
1,236
Away nfelo
1,332
Home Field
+46.2
Base HFA
+51.5
Divisional Adj
-23.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+18.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+2.2
Home QB Adjustment
+15.7
Away QB Adjustment
+13.4
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.1
Team Elo Adj
+13.4
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
32
Yards / Game
32
30
Passing Yards / Game
19
29
Rushing Yards / Game
31
27
EPA
EPA / Play
32
32
EPA / Pass
31
32
EPA / Rush
31
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
1
Interceptions / Game
23
13
Fumbles / Game
18
32
Turnover EPA / Game
16
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
24
4th Down Efficiency
27
28
RZ Efficiency
21
28
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
16
Yards / Game
27
7
Passing Yards / Game
4
21
Rushing Yards / Game
32
2
EPA
EPA / Play
27
9
EPA / Pass
26
19
EPA / Rush
30
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
4
Interceptions / Game
27
18
Fumbles / Game
4
20
Turnover EPA / Game
9
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
15
4th Down Efficiency
17
2
RZ Efficiency
18
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
1-9
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Dolphins
0-10
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U