NYJJets
3-9
26
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
77°F
12 mph
32
MIADolphins
5-7
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
77°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Jets
3
10
10
3
0
26
Dolphins
6
9
0
11
6
32
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
402
377
Total Plays
63
67
Yards / Play
6.4
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.28
+0.30
Passing Yards
319
--
Comp/Att
27/39(69%)
33/48(69%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
--
EPA / Pass
+0.38
+0.44
Rushing Yards
83
44
Rush Attempts
21
19
Yards / Rush
4.0
2.3
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
28
Passing 1st downs
18
21
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
33%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
4
1
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
40%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-20
--
Sack EPA
-5.32
--
Penalties
10
8
Penalty Yards
83
49
Penalty EPA
-10.02
-7.24
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+129
Home nfelo
1,531
Away nfelo
1,479
Home Field
+35.9
Base HFA
+40.0
Divisional Adj
-18.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+41.7
Home QB Adjustment
+37.1
Away QB Adjustment
-4.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
-4.6
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+37.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
9
Yards / Game
24
6
Passing Yards / Game
5
7
Rushing Yards / Game
31
8
EPA
EPA / Play
19
11
EPA / Pass
18
12
EPA / Rush
21
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
16
Interceptions / Game
11
22
Fumbles / Game
10
19
Turnover EPA / Game
17
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
5
4th Down Efficiency
28
6
RZ Efficiency
21
5
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
19
Yards / Game
18
5
Passing Yards / Game
17
4
Rushing Yards / Game
21
17
EPA
EPA / Play
21
24
EPA / Pass
13
19
EPA / Rush
31
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
17
Interceptions / Game
10
27
Fumbles / Game
22
7
Turnover EPA / Game
12
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
14
4th Down Efficiency
25
30
RZ Efficiency
16
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Dolphins
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U