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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ dolphins week 14, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
3-9
26
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
77°F
12 mph
32
MIADolphins
5-7
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
77°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Jets
3
10
10
3
0
26
Dolphins
6
9
0
11
6
32

Spread

NYJ logo
+6.5

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
402
377
Total Plays
63
67
Yards / Play
6.4
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.28
+0.30
Passing Yards
319
--
Comp/Att
27/39(69%)
33/48(69%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
--
EPA / Pass
+0.38
+0.44
Rushing Yards
83
44
Rush Attempts
21
19
Yards / Rush
4.0
2.3
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
23
28
Passing 1st downs
18
21
Rushing 1st downs
3
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
33%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
4
1
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
40%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-20
--
Sack EPA
-5.32
--
Penalties
10
8
Penalty Yards
83
49
Penalty EPA
-10.02
-7.24

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+133
Home nfelo
1,532
Away nfelo
1,478
Home Field
+36.6
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
-18.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+41.7
Home QB Adjustment
+37.1
Away QB Adjustment
-4.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-4.6
Value
Ptile
09/19
6.4
86
09/29
-4.8
17
10/06
-7.3
7
10/14
1.6
60
10/20
-1.6
37
10/27
2.3
65
10/31
3.2
71
11/10
-5.9
12
11/17
-0.1
48
12/01
-3.0
28
T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+37.1
Value
Ptile
01/07
-2.0
34
01/13
0.5
52
09/08
1.3
58
09/12
-5.2
15
10/27
3.0
69
11/03
6.4
86
11/11
-3.3
26
11/17
7.0
89
11/24
8.1
93
11/28
6.3
86

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Jets logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
24
9
Yards / Game
24
6
Passing Yards / Game
5
7
Rushing Yards / Game
31
8

EPA

EPA / Play
19
11
EPA / Pass
18
12
EPA / Rush
21
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
16
Interceptions / Game
11
22
Fumbles / Game
10
19
Turnover EPA / Game
17
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
5
4th Down Efficiency
28
6
RZ Efficiency
21
5
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Dolphins logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
22
19
Yards / Game
18
5
Passing Yards / Game
17
4
Rushing Yards / Game
21
17

EPA

EPA / Play
21
24
EPA / Pass
13
19
EPA / Rush
31
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
17
Interceptions / Game
10
27
Fumbles / Game
22
7
Turnover EPA / Game
12
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
14
4th Down Efficiency
25
30
RZ Efficiency
16
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/19
21
W
W
U
09/29
-1
L
L
U
10/06
-6
L
L
U
10/14
-3
L
L
O
10/20
-22
L
L
O
10/27
-3
L
L
O
10/31
8
W
W
U
11/10
-25
L
L
U
11/17
-1
L
L
O
12/01
-5
L
L
O
MIA logo

Dolphins

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
-21
L
L
U
09/30
-19
L
L
O
10/06
5
W
W
U
10/20
-6
L
L
U
10/27
-1
L
L
O
11/03
-3
L
W
O
11/11
8
W
W
U
11/17
15
W
W
O
11/24
19
W
W
O
11/28
-13
L
L
U