NYJJets
8-7
17
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
78°F
8 mph
19
MIADolphins
5-10
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
78°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
7
3
0
7
17
Dolphins
3
3
0
13
19
Spread
2
P
Total
UNDER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
374
210
Total Plays
62
59
Yards / Play
6.0
3.6
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.04
Passing Yards
245
128
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
22/32(69%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
4.0
EPA / Pass
-0.17
-0.02
Rushing Yards
129
82
Rush Attempts
27
26
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
14
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
36%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
3
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-14.99
-4.44
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-3
-7
Sack EPA
-2.54
-0.66
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
--
35
Penalty EPA
--
-4.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+49
Home nfelo
1,560
Away nfelo
1,567
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.3
Home QB Adjustment
-7.5
Away QB Adjustment
-7.8
Market Regression
+14.0
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-7.8
M. Moore
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-7.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
6
Yards / Game
26
15
Passing Yards / Game
18
30
Rushing Yards / Game
22
4
EPA
EPA / Play
21
11
EPA / Pass
25
14
EPA / Rush
13
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
3
Interceptions / Game
23
17
Fumbles / Game
29
32
Turnover EPA / Game
2
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
4
4th Down Efficiency
20
23
RZ Efficiency
4
5
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
19
Yards / Game
23
4
Passing Yards / Game
22
7
Rushing Yards / Game
10
14
EPA
EPA / Play
18
8
EPA / Pass
17
4
EPA / Rush
20
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
13
Interceptions / Game
9
9
Fumbles / Game
27
2
Turnover EPA / Game
21
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
2
4th Down Efficiency
19
1
RZ Efficiency
24
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U