NYJJets
3-12
37
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
12 mph
24
MIADolphins
8-7
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
7
7
10
13
37
Dolphins
3
14
7
0
24
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
494
387
Total Plays
62
66
Yards / Play
8.0
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.26
-0.03
Passing Yards
390
208
Comp/Att
21/27(78%)
23/39(59%)
Yards / Pass
14.4
5.3
EPA / Pass
+1.05
-0.26
Rushing Yards
104
179
Rush Attempts
34
20
Yards / Rush
3.1
8.9
EPA / Rush
-0.40
+0.42
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
15
14
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
43%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
20%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.95
-4.20
Sacks
1
7
Sack Yards
-6
-51
Sack EPA
-1.86
-11.75
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
--
40
Penalty EPA
--
-3.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+159
Home nfelo
1,499
Away nfelo
1,428
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+32.0
Home QB Adjustment
+25.4
Away QB Adjustment
-6.6
Market Regression
+47.2
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-6.6
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+25.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
19
Yards / Game
22
11
Passing Yards / Game
23
11
Rushing Yards / Game
3
23
EPA
EPA / Play
24
19
EPA / Pass
29
20
EPA / Rush
10
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
10
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
10
6
Turnover EPA / Game
15
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
28
4th Down Efficiency
7
27
RZ Efficiency
32
13
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
24
Yards / Game
14
7
Passing Yards / Game
17
30
Rushing Yards / Game
12
5
EPA
EPA / Play
13
26
EPA / Pass
16
24
EPA / Rush
15
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
8
Interceptions / Game
8
30
Fumbles / Game
15
21
Turnover EPA / Game
18
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
30
4th Down Efficiency
25
1
RZ Efficiency
21
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Dolphins
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U