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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ dolphins week 17, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
3-12
37
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
12 mph
24
MIADolphins
8-7
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
7
7
10
13
37
Dolphins
3
14
7
0
24

Spread

NYJ logo
+7

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
494
387
Total Plays
62
66
Yards / Play
8.0
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.26
-0.03
Passing Yards
390
208
Comp/Att
21/27(78%)
23/39(59%)
Yards / Pass
14.4
5.3
EPA / Pass
+1.05
-0.26
Rushing Yards
104
179
Rush Attempts
34
20
Yards / Rush
3.1
8.9
EPA / Rush
-0.40
+0.42
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
15
14
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
43%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
20%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.95
-4.20
Sacks
1
7
Sack Yards
-6
-51
Sack EPA
-1.86
-11.75
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
--
40
Penalty EPA
--
-3.76

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+159
Home nfelo
1,499
Away nfelo
1,428
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+32.0
Home QB Adjustment
+25.4
Away QB Adjustment
-6.6
Market Regression
+47.2
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-6.6
Value
Ptile
09/22
-1.3
41
09/28
-3.9
26
10/05
-9.1
6
10/12
-4.9
20
10/16
0.4
52
10/26
-12.0
1
12/01
-7.2
10
12/07
-0.9
43
12/14
-2.9
30
12/21
-2.1
35
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+25.4
Value
Ptile
10/19
6.1
87
10/26
-2.0
36
11/02
10.4
97
11/09
-1.6
39
11/13
3.1
72
11/23
6.3
87
12/01
-2.2
35
12/07
-4.0
26
12/14
-1.5
39
12/21
9.5
95

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Jets logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
28
19
Yards / Game
22
11
Passing Yards / Game
23
11
Rushing Yards / Game
3
23

EPA

EPA / Play
24
19
EPA / Pass
29
20
EPA / Rush
10
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
10
Interceptions / Game
17
16
Fumbles / Game
10
6
Turnover EPA / Game
15
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
28
4th Down Efficiency
7
27
RZ Efficiency
32
13
Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Dolphins logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
11
24
Yards / Game
14
7
Passing Yards / Game
17
30
Rushing Yards / Game
12
5

EPA

EPA / Play
13
26
EPA / Pass
16
24
EPA / Rush
15
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
8
Interceptions / Game
8
30
Fumbles / Game
15
21
Turnover EPA / Game
18
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
30
4th Down Efficiency
25
1
RZ Efficiency
21
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/12
-14
L
L
O
10/16
-2
L
W
O
10/26
-20
L
L
O
11/02
-14
L
L
U
11/09
7
W
W
U
11/24
-35
L
L
U
12/01
-3
L
W
U
12/07
-6
L
L
O
12/14
5
W
W
U
12/21
-1
L
W
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/19
13
W
W
U
10/26
14
W
W
U
11/02
37
W
W
U
11/09
-4
L
L
U
11/13
13
W
W
U
11/23
-3
L
W
O
12/01
3
W
L
U
12/07
-15
L
L
U
12/14
-28
L
L
O
12/21
2
W
L
O