NYJJets
8-5
19
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
35°F
9 mph
45
PHIEagles
5-8
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
35°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
13
0
6
19
Eagles
8
14
10
7
39
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
241
420
Total Plays
61
58
Yards / Play
4.0
7.2
EPA / Play
-0.31
+0.11
Passing Yards
147
260
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
15/22(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
11.8
EPA / Pass
-0.65
+0.36
Rushing Yards
94
160
Rush Attempts
27
33
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.25
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
20
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
23%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
33%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
3
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
3
2
Turnover EPA
-15.26
-10.19
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-30
-14
Sack EPA
-6.28
-3.46
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
93
62
Penalty EPA
-5.48
-5.22
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+43
Home nfelo
1,580
Away nfelo
1,620
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.2
Home QB Adjustment
+5.8
Away QB Adjustment
+7.0
Market Regression
+36.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+7.0
M. Vick
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+5.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
9
Yards / Game
26
8
Passing Yards / Game
18
15
Rushing Yards / Game
22
16
EPA
EPA / Play
21
12
EPA / Pass
25
10
EPA / Rush
13
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
21
Interceptions / Game
23
18
Fumbles / Game
29
4
Turnover EPA / Game
2
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
12
4th Down Efficiency
20
14
RZ Efficiency
4
27
Eagles Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
19
Yards / Game
5
4
Passing Yards / Game
10
7
Rushing Yards / Game
5
14
EPA
EPA / Play
8
8
EPA / Pass
15
4
EPA / Rush
3
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
13
Interceptions / Game
31
9
Fumbles / Game
21
2
Turnover EPA / Game
3
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
2
4th Down Efficiency
10
1
RZ Efficiency
16
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Eagles
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U