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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ eagles week 15, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
8-5
19
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
35°F
9 mph
45
PHIEagles
5-8
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
35°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
13
0
6
19
Eagles
8
14
10
7
39

Spread

PHI logo
-3

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
241
420
Total Plays
61
58
Yards / Play
4.0
7.2
EPA / Play
-0.31
+0.11
Passing Yards
147
260
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
15/22(68%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
11.8
EPA / Pass
-0.65
+0.36
Rushing Yards
94
160
Rush Attempts
27
33
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.25
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
13
20
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
23%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
33%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
5
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
5
3
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
3
2
Turnover EPA
-15.26
-10.19
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-30
-14
Sack EPA
-6.28
-3.46
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
93
62
Penalty EPA
-5.48
-5.22

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+44
Home nfelo
1,580
Away nfelo
1,619
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.2
Home QB Adjustment
+5.8
Away QB Adjustment
+7.0
Market Regression
+36.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+7.0
Value
Ptile
10/02
-10.3
2
10/09
-0.5
48
10/17
1.8
65
10/23
1.2
61
11/06
0.3
54
11/13
-4.9
19
11/17
-4.4
22
11/27
1.3
62
12/04
0.1
53
12/11
4.5
79
M. Vick headshot

M. Vick

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+5.8
Value
Ptile
09/11
3.4
74
09/18
4.2
77
09/25
-1.3
43
10/02
10.9
97
10/09
5.7
85
10/16
1.9
65
10/30
6.1
87
11/07
-1.8
37
11/13
-4.8
20
12/11
-5.2
18

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Eagles Defense
Jets logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
12
9
Yards / Game
26
8
Passing Yards / Game
18
15
Rushing Yards / Game
22
16

EPA

EPA / Play
21
12
EPA / Pass
25
10
EPA / Rush
13
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
21
Interceptions / Game
23
18
Fumbles / Game
29
4
Turnover EPA / Game
2
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
12
4th Down Efficiency
20
14
RZ Efficiency
4
27
Eagles Offense vs Jets Defense
Eagles logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
8
19
Yards / Game
5
4
Passing Yards / Game
10
7
Rushing Yards / Game
5
14

EPA

EPA / Play
8
8
EPA / Pass
15
4
EPA / Rush
3
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
13
Interceptions / Game
31
9
Fumbles / Game
21
2
Turnover EPA / Game
3
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
2
4th Down Efficiency
10
1
RZ Efficiency
16
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
-17
L
L
O
10/09
-9
L
L
O
10/17
18
W
W
U
10/23
6
W
W
O
11/06
16
W
W
U
11/13
-21
L
L
O
11/17
-4
L
L
U
11/27
4
W
L
O
12/04
15
W
W
O
12/11
27
W
W
O
PHI logo

Eagles

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
-1
L
L
O
10/09
-7
L
L
O
10/16
7
W
W
U
10/30
27
W
W
U
11/07
-6
L
L
O
11/13
-4
L
L
U
11/20
7
W
W
U
11/27
-18
L
L
O
12/01
-17
L
L
O
12/11
16
W
W
U