NYJJets
6-5
23
TBD
MetLife Stadium
51°F
8 mph
20
NYGGiants
5-6
TBD
MetLife Stadium
51°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Jets
3
7
0
10
3
23
Giants
0
14
0
0
0
14
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
463
355
Total Plays
77
61
Yards / Play
6.0
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.06
Passing Yards
373
281
Comp/Att
36/50(72%)
18/34(53%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.09
Rushing Yards
90
74
Rush Attempts
24
24
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.32
-0.40
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
14
Passing 1st downs
21
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
40%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
25%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.46
-3.34
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-17
-16
Sack EPA
-4.04
-3.41
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
61
60
Penalty EPA
-13.57
-7.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model50.6%
Spread Pick
Giants+2.5
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+30
Home nfelo
1,471
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+60.6
Base HFA
+60.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-8.5
Home QB Adjustment
+4.7
Away QB Adjustment
+13.2
Market Regression
-9.8
Final Difference
-3.9
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+13.2
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
30
Yards / Game
10
32
Passing Yards / Game
15
13
Rushing Yards / Game
10
24
EPA
EPA / Play
17
31
EPA / Pass
9
25
EPA / Rush
15
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
28
Interceptions / Game
22
10
Fumbles / Game
15
9
Turnover EPA / Game
24
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
32
4th Down Efficiency
25
22
RZ Efficiency
3
12
Giants Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
7
Yards / Game
6
4
Passing Yards / Game
29
9
Rushing Yards / Game
18
2
EPA
EPA / Play
7
4
EPA / Pass
10
9
EPA / Rush
21
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
31
Interceptions / Game
17
5
Fumbles / Game
9
12
Turnover EPA / Game
14
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
3
4th Down Efficiency
8
21
RZ Efficiency
29
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Giants
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U