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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ lions week 9, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
5-2
23
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
20
DETLions
2-5
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Jets
0
10
0
10
3
23
Lions
7
0
6
7
0
20

Spread

DET logo
+6

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
437
306
Total Plays
70
67
Yards / Play
6.2
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.00
-0.05
Passing Yards
327
228
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
20/37(54%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.05
Rushing Yards
110
78
Rush Attempts
30
28
Yards / Rush
3.7
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
23
21
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
6
3rd Down %
38%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.42
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-9
-12
Sack EPA
-0.66
-0.24
Penalties
11
11
Penalty Yards
99
102
Penalty EPA
-13.15
-10.83

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-165
Home nfelo
1,395
Away nfelo
1,602
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-20.5
Home QB Adjustment
-23.7
Away QB Adjustment
-3.2
Market Regression
-18.8
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0

Quarterbacks

M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-3.2
Value
Ptile
01/09
3.1
70
01/17
-5.1
20
01/24
2.4
65
09/13
-5.5
15
09/19
3.3
71
09/26
5.7
86
10/03
2.0
62
10/11
-4.5
20
10/17
-5.0
18
10/31
-5.2
17
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
-23.7
Value
Ptile
09/27
2.5
66
10/04
-0.1
48
11/01
-5.6
16
11/08
-10.1
3
11/15
0.5
54
11/22
8.1
92
11/26
-8.3
7
12/06
-8.9
5
09/12
-3.2
28
10/31
3.0
69

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Lions Defense
Jets logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
14
19
Yards / Game
12
21
Passing Yards / Game
27
28
Rushing Yards / Game
4
24

EPA

EPA / Play
15
11
EPA / Pass
18
6
EPA / Rush
6
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
26
Interceptions / Game
10
19
Fumbles / Game
5
2
Turnover EPA / Game
28
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
19
4th Down Efficiency
21
9
RZ Efficiency
28
23
Lions Offense vs Jets Defense
Lions logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
15
5
Yards / Game
15
3
Passing Yards / Game
6
20
Rushing Yards / Game
23
5

EPA

EPA / Play
20
8
EPA / Pass
19
9
EPA / Rush
17
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
29
Interceptions / Game
16
25
Fumbles / Game
9
4
Turnover EPA / Game
18
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
15
4th Down Efficiency
7
12
RZ Efficiency
2
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/09
10
W
W
O
01/17
3
W
W
U
01/24
-13
L
L
O
09/13
-1
L
L
U
09/19
14
W
W
O
09/26
8
W
W
O
10/03
24
W
W
O
10/11
9
W
W
O
10/17
4
W
W
O
10/31
-9
L
L
U
DET logo

Lions

2-8
SU
7-2-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
-7
L
W
O
12/27
-14
L
P
U
01/03
-14
L
L
O
09/12
-5
L
W
U
09/19
-3
L
W
O
09/26
-14
L
L
U
10/03
-2
L
W
O
10/10
38
W
W
O
10/17
-8
L
W
O
10/31
12
W
W
O