NYJJets
5-2
23
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
020
DETLions
2-5
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Jets
0
10
0
10
3
23
Lions
7
0
6
7
0
20
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
437
306
Total Plays
70
67
Yards / Play
6.2
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.00
-0.05
Passing Yards
327
228
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
20/37(54%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.05
Rushing Yards
110
78
Rush Attempts
30
28
Yards / Rush
3.7
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
21
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
6
3rd Down %
38%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.42
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-9
-12
Sack EPA
-0.66
-0.24
Penalties
11
11
Penalty Yards
99
102
Penalty EPA
-13.15
-10.83
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.8%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-164
Home nfelo
1,396
Away nfelo
1,603
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-20.5
Home QB Adjustment
-23.7
Away QB Adjustment
-3.2
Market Regression
-19.1
Final Difference
-145.5
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-3.2
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-23.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
19
Yards / Game
12
21
Passing Yards / Game
27
28
Rushing Yards / Game
4
24
EPA
EPA / Play
15
11
EPA / Pass
18
6
EPA / Rush
6
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
26
Interceptions / Game
10
19
Fumbles / Game
5
2
Turnover EPA / Game
28
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
19
4th Down Efficiency
21
9
RZ Efficiency
28
23
Lions Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
5
Yards / Game
15
3
Passing Yards / Game
6
20
Rushing Yards / Game
23
5
EPA
EPA / Play
20
8
EPA / Pass
19
9
EPA / Rush
17
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
29
Interceptions / Game
16
25
Fumbles / Game
9
4
Turnover EPA / Game
18
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
15
4th Down Efficiency
7
12
RZ Efficiency
2
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Lions
2-8
SU
7-2-1
ATS
7-3
O/U