NYJJets
3-2
27
TBD
Lambeau Field
70°F
010
GBPackers
3-2
TBD
Lambeau Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
3
8
10
21
Packers
0
3
7
0
10
Spread
+7.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
278
278
Total Plays
53
69
Yards / Play
5.2
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.41
Passing Yards
99
218
Comp/Att
10/18(56%)
28/45(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.21
-0.36
Rushing Yards
179
60
Rush Attempts
33
20
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
15
Passing 1st downs
4
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
9%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
1
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.79
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-11
-36
Sack EPA
-2.92
-8.82
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
79
42
Penalty EPA
-10.05
-3.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model76.6%
Spread Pick
Packers-7.5
Expected Value
+2.3%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+239
Home nfelo
1,578
Away nfelo
1,389
Home Field
+45.6
Base HFA
+39.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.6
Time Adj
-7.0
Net QB Adjustment
+5.1
Home QB Adjustment
-5.0
Away QB Adjustment
-10.1
Market Regression
-2.1
Final Difference
205.8
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
Z. Wilson
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-10.1
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
16
Yards / Game
25
16
Passing Yards / Game
10
13
Rushing Yards / Game
25
26
EPA
EPA / Play
29
20
EPA / Pass
26
14
EPA / Rush
22
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
26
Interceptions / Game
17
5
Fumbles / Game
11
14
Turnover EPA / Game
11
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
7
4th Down Efficiency
26
23
RZ Efficiency
31
11
Packers Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
2
Yards / Game
17
4
Passing Yards / Game
13
14
Rushing Yards / Game
15
17
EPA
EPA / Play
16
4
EPA / Pass
18
5
EPA / Rush
10
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
13
Interceptions / Game
10
19
Fumbles / Game
9
31
Turnover EPA / Game
17
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
10
4th Down Efficiency
27
8
RZ Efficiency
22
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Packers
6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U