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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ packers week 6, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NYJ logo
NYJJets
3-2
27
TBD
Lambeau Field
70°F
0
10
GBPackers
3-2
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
3
8
10
21
Packers
0
3
7
0
10

Spread

NYJ logo
+7.5

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
278
278
Total Plays
53
69
Yards / Play
5.2
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.41
Passing Yards
99
218
Comp/Att
10/18(56%)
28/45(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
4.8
EPA / Pass
-0.21
-0.36
Rushing Yards
179
60
Rush Attempts
33
20
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
14
15
Passing 1st downs
4
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
9%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
1
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.79
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-11
-36
Sack EPA
-2.92
-8.82
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
79
42
Penalty EPA
-10.05
-3.77

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model76.6%
Spread Pick
GB logo
Packers-7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.3%
Cover Probability
53.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+238
Home nfelo
1,578
Away nfelo
1,391
Home Field
+45.6
Base HFA
+39.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.6
Time Adj
-7.0
Net QB Adjustment
+5.1
Home QB Adjustment
-5.0
Away QB Adjustment
-10.1
Market Regression
-2.4
Final Difference
205.6
Model Spread
-8.5

Quarterbacks

Z. Wilson headshot

Z. Wilson

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-10.1
Value
Ptile
10/24
-5.1
19
11/28
-8.1
8
12/05
-1.2
44
12/12
-5.4
17
12/19
-6.2
13
12/26
4.0
80
01/02
-1.1
45
01/09
-10.8
2
10/02
-3.2
27
10/09
-1.3
43
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.0
Value
Ptile
12/19
4.5
82
12/25
5.2
84
01/02
7.3
92
01/09
-1.9
39
01/22
-4.6
21
09/11
-6.8
10
09/18
2.0
68
09/25
3.9
80
10/02
0.6
56
10/09
1.5
63

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Packers Defense
Jets logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
29
16
Yards / Game
25
16
Passing Yards / Game
10
13
Rushing Yards / Game
25
26

EPA

EPA / Play
29
20
EPA / Pass
26
14
EPA / Rush
22
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
26
Interceptions / Game
17
5
Fumbles / Game
11
14
Turnover EPA / Game
11
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
7
4th Down Efficiency
26
23
RZ Efficiency
31
11
Packers Offense vs Jets Defense
Packers logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
14
2
Yards / Game
17
4
Passing Yards / Game
13
14
Rushing Yards / Game
15
17

EPA

EPA / Play
16
4
EPA / Pass
18
5
EPA / Rush
10
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
13
Interceptions / Game
10
19
Fumbles / Game
9
31
Turnover EPA / Game
17
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
10
4th Down Efficiency
27
8
RZ Efficiency
22
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/12
-21
L
L
U
12/19
-7
L
W
O
12/26
5
W
W
O
01/02
-4
L
W
O
01/09
-17
L
L
U
09/11
-15
L
L
U
09/18
1
W
W
O
09/25
-15
L
L
U
10/02
4
W
W
O
10/09
23
W
W
O
GB logo

Packers

6-4
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/19
1
W
L
O
12/25
2
W
L
U
01/02
27
W
W
O
01/09
-7
L
L
O
01/22
-3
L
L
U
09/11
-16
L
L
U
09/18
17
W
W
U
09/25
2
W
W
U
10/02
3
W
L
O
10/09
-5
L
L
O