NYJJets
0-2
14
TBD
Gillette Stadium
81°F
10 mph
30
NEPatriots
2-0
TBD
Gillette Stadium
81°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
0
7
1
8
Patriots
13
7
10
0
30
Spread
+21
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
105
381
Total Plays
47
72
Yards / Play
2.2
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.52
-0.03
Passing Yards
69
313
Comp/Att
12/22(55%)
30/45(67%)
Yards / Pass
3.1
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.76
+0.03
Rushing Yards
36
68
Rush Attempts
20
26
Yards / Rush
1.8
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.62
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
6
21
Passing 1st downs
4
17
Rushing 1st downs
--
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
0%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
--
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
NaN%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+2.38
-7.98
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-29
-7
Sack EPA
-6.25
-1.19
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
67
70
Penalty EPA
-7.64
-6.81
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-20.0
Current
-21.0
Model
-21.0
Win Probability
Market94.5%
Model94.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+515
Home nfelo
1,718
Away nfelo
1,350
Home Field
+51.1
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
-25.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+97.1
Home QB Adjustment
+12.5
Away QB Adjustment
-84.6
Market Regression
+13.2
Final Difference
494.0
Model Spread
-21.0
Quarterbacks
L. Falk
Proj. Value
-7.6
Team Elo Adj
-84.6
No recent game data available
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+12.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
1
Yards / Game
32
1
Passing Yards / Game
19
4
Rushing Yards / Game
31
8
EPA
EPA / Play
32
1
EPA / Pass
31
1
EPA / Rush
31
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
29
Interceptions / Game
23
1
Fumbles / Game
18
18
Turnover EPA / Game
16
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
1
4th Down Efficiency
27
6
RZ Efficiency
21
8
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
16
Yards / Game
14
7
Passing Yards / Game
20
21
Rushing Yards / Game
18
2
EPA
EPA / Play
16
9
EPA / Pass
18
19
EPA / Rush
14
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
4
Interceptions / Game
10
18
Fumbles / Game
15
20
Turnover EPA / Game
28
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
15
4th Down Efficiency
26
2
RZ Efficiency
26
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
1-9
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Patriots
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U