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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ patriots week 3, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
0-2
14
TBD
Gillette Stadium
81°F
10 mph
30
NEPatriots
2-0
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
81°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
0
7
1
8
Patriots
13
7
10
0
30

Spread

NYJ logo
+21

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
105
381
Total Plays
47
72
Yards / Play
2.2
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.52
-0.03
Passing Yards
69
313
Comp/Att
12/22(55%)
30/45(67%)
Yards / Pass
3.1
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.76
+0.03
Rushing Yards
36
68
Rush Attempts
20
26
Yards / Rush
1.8
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.62
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
6
21
Passing 1st downs
4
17
Rushing 1st downs
--
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
0%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
--
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
NaN%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+2.38
-7.98
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-29
-7
Sack EPA
-6.25
-1.19
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
67
70
Penalty EPA
-7.64
-6.81

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-20.0
Current
-21.0
Model
-21.0

Win Probability

Market94.5%
Model94.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+516
Home nfelo
1,713
Away nfelo
1,346
Home Field
+51.8
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
-26.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+97.1
Home QB Adjustment
+12.5
Away QB Adjustment
-84.6
Market Regression
+13.1
Final Difference
494.0
Model Spread
-21.0

Quarterbacks

L. Falk headshot

L. Falk

Proj. Value
-7.6
Team Elo Adj
-84.6
No recent game data available
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+12.5
Value
Ptile
12/02
4.9
79
12/09
5.5
83
12/16
1.5
57
12/23
-6.0
13
12/30
6.4
87
01/13
8.3
92
01/20
1.6
58
02/03
-2.7
29
09/08
7.2
91
09/15
3.5
75

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Jets logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
31
1
Yards / Game
32
1
Passing Yards / Game
19
4
Rushing Yards / Game
31
8

EPA

EPA / Play
32
1
EPA / Pass
31
1
EPA / Rush
31
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
29
Interceptions / Game
23
1
Fumbles / Game
18
18
Turnover EPA / Game
16
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
1
4th Down Efficiency
27
6
RZ Efficiency
21
8
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Patriots logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
7
16
Yards / Game
14
7
Passing Yards / Game
20
21
Rushing Yards / Game
18
2

EPA

EPA / Play
16
9
EPA / Pass
18
19
EPA / Rush
15
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
4
Interceptions / Game
10
18
Fumbles / Game
15
20
Turnover EPA / Game
28
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
15
4th Down Efficiency
26
2
RZ Efficiency
26
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

1-9
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/04
-7
L
L
U
11/11
-31
L
L
O
11/25
-14
L
L
U
12/02
-4
L
W
O
12/09
4
W
W
O
12/15
-7
L
P
O
12/23
-6
L
L
O
12/30
-35
L
L
U
09/08
-1
L
L
U
09/16
-20
L
L
U
NE logo

Patriots

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/02
14
W
W
U
12/09
-1
L
L
O
12/16
-7
L
L
U
12/23
12
W
L
U
12/30
35
W
W
U
01/13
13
W
W
O
01/20
6
W
W
O
02/03
10
W
W
U
09/08
30
W
W
U
09/15
43
W
W
U