NYJJets
2-2
21
TBD
Gillette Stadium
82°F
9 mph
30
NEPatriots
3-1
TBD
Gillette Stadium
82°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
7
7
7
21
Patriots
7
3
14
6
30
Spread
-7.5
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
255
446
Total Plays
53
72
Yards / Play
4.8
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.19
Passing Yards
158
294
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
24/33(73%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
8.9
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.19
Rushing Yards
97
152
Rush Attempts
25
35
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
26
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
27%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-2.96
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-8
-27
Sack EPA
-2.20
-4.81
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
89
50
Penalty EPA
-10.61
-3.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+173
Home nfelo
1,709
Away nfelo
1,600
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+29.3
Home QB Adjustment
+26.5
Away QB Adjustment
-2.8
Market Regression
-37.0
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-2.8
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+26.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
11
Yards / Game
26
31
Passing Yards / Game
18
28
Rushing Yards / Game
22
19
EPA
EPA / Play
21
27
EPA / Pass
25
27
EPA / Rush
13
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
26
Interceptions / Game
23
4
Fumbles / Game
29
25
Turnover EPA / Game
2
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
28
4th Down Efficiency
20
17
RZ Efficiency
4
18
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
19
Yards / Game
2
4
Passing Yards / Game
2
7
Rushing Yards / Game
19
14
EPA
EPA / Play
1
8
EPA / Pass
3
4
EPA / Rush
4
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
13
Interceptions / Game
11
9
Fumbles / Game
11
2
Turnover EPA / Game
30
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
2
4th Down Efficiency
2
1
RZ Efficiency
2
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Patriots
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U