NYJJets
1-5
25
TBD
Gillette Stadium
64°F
9 mph
27
NEPatriots
4-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
64°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
6
6
7
6
25
Patriots
7
10
3
7
27
Spread
+9.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
423
323
Total Plays
81
53
Yards / Play
5.2
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.22
Passing Yards
205
260
Comp/Att
20/35(57%)
20/37(54%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.22
Rushing Yards
218
63
Rush Attempts
43
15
Yards / Rush
5.1
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.18
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
16
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
13
2
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
56%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-21
-1
Sack EPA
-4.80
-0.79
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
70
64
Penalty EPA
-6.80
-8.50
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+248
Home nfelo
1,603
Away nfelo
1,407
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+17.6
Home QB Adjustment
+6.9
Away QB Adjustment
-10.7
Market Regression
+8.9
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-10.7
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
8
Yards / Game
22
12
Passing Yards / Game
23
21
Rushing Yards / Game
3
13
EPA
EPA / Play
24
9
EPA / Pass
29
11
EPA / Rush
10
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
28
Interceptions / Game
17
10
Fumbles / Game
10
23
Turnover EPA / Game
15
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
13
4th Down Efficiency
7
12
RZ Efficiency
32
16
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
24
Yards / Game
10
7
Passing Yards / Game
10
30
Rushing Yards / Game
19
5
EPA
EPA / Play
1
26
EPA / Pass
4
24
EPA / Rush
5
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
8
Interceptions / Game
6
30
Fumbles / Game
3
21
Turnover EPA / Game
30
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
30
4th Down Efficiency
3
1
RZ Efficiency
5
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
3-5-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U