NYJJets
4-5
14
TBD
Gillette Stadium
45°F
10 mph
31
NEPatriots
6-3
TBD
Gillette Stadium
45°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
1
7
0
8
Patriots
8
10
0
7
25
Spread
-11
Total
PUSH
45
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
226
410
Total Plays
49
78
Yards / Play
4.6
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.38
-0.02
Passing Yards
122
299
Comp/Att
8/21(38%)
28/41(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.99
+0.28
Rushing Yards
104
111
Rush Attempts
26
35
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
27
Passing 1st downs
7
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
20%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
17
Red Zone %
NaN%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
1
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-21.62
-4.75
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-14
-11
Sack EPA
-6.44
-1.65
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
28
51
Penalty EPA
-4.86
-4.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-12.0
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+220
Home nfelo
1,665
Away nfelo
1,519
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+40.2
Home QB Adjustment
+27.0
Away QB Adjustment
-13.2
Market Regression
-8.7
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-13.2
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+27.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
6
Yards / Game
20
9
Passing Yards / Game
32
18
Rushing Yards / Game
1
19
EPA
EPA / Play
20
10
EPA / Pass
25
14
EPA / Rush
6
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
29
Interceptions / Game
27
11
Fumbles / Game
17
27
Turnover EPA / Game
21
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
19
4th Down Efficiency
1
14
RZ Efficiency
16
22
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
1
Yards / Game
4
1
Passing Yards / Game
17
2
Rushing Yards / Game
14
7
EPA
EPA / Play
6
1
EPA / Pass
9
1
EPA / Rush
11
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
26
Interceptions / Game
15
14
Fumbles / Game
18
18
Turnover EPA / Game
19
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
1
4th Down Efficiency
13
3
RZ Efficiency
11
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U