NYJJets
12-5
28
TBD
Gillette Stadium
30°F
14 mph
21
NEPatriots
14-2
TBD
Gillette Stadium
30°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
14
0
14
28
Patriots
3
0
8
10
21
Spread
+9.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
314
374
Total Plays
54
79
Yards / Play
5.8
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.02
Passing Yards
--
259
Comp/Att
16/25(64%)
29/45(64%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.46
-0.14
Rushing Yards
120
115
Rush Attempts
29
29
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
26
Passing 1st downs
8
19
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
46%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
80%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-8.95
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-40
Sack EPA
--
-8.85
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
35
44
Penalty EPA
+0.07
-7.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model76.1%
Spread Pick
Jets+9.5
Expected Value
+5.1%
Cover Probability
55.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+136
Home nfelo
1,673
Away nfelo
1,619
Home Field
+52.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+17.0
Home QB Adjustment
+16.8
Away QB Adjustment
-0.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
200.8
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-0.2
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
8
Yards / Game
12
25
Passing Yards / Game
27
25
Rushing Yards / Game
4
13
EPA
EPA / Play
15
20
EPA / Pass
18
15
EPA / Rush
6
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
24
Interceptions / Game
10
2
Fumbles / Game
5
13
Turnover EPA / Game
28
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
32
4th Down Efficiency
21
25
RZ Efficiency
28
22
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
5
Yards / Game
7
3
Passing Yards / Game
23
20
Rushing Yards / Game
9
5
EPA
EPA / Play
1
8
EPA / Pass
2
9
EPA / Rush
2
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
29
Interceptions / Game
1
25
Fumbles / Game
2
4
Turnover EPA / Game
32
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
15
4th Down Efficiency
17
12
RZ Efficiency
9
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Patriots
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
9-1
O/U