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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ raiders week 3, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
2-0
24
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
70°F
7 mph
34
OAKRaiders
1-1
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
70°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
7
10
0
7
24
Raiders
7
10
7
10
34

Spread

OAK logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
40

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
439
383
Total Plays
73
60
Yards / Play
6.0
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.18
Passing Yards
339
149
Comp/Att
27/44(61%)
18/27(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.7
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.04
Rushing Yards
100
234
Rush Attempts
25
32
Yards / Rush
4.0
7.3
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.25
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
25
23
Passing 1st downs
15
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
5
5
3rd Down %
43%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
6
--
3rd Down Attempts
14
8
Red Zone %
40%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.05
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-30
-7
Sack EPA
-6.13
-1.52
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
61
55
Penalty EPA
-6.47
-6.96

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-42
Home nfelo
1,481
Away nfelo
1,627
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+8.4
Home QB Adjustment
+13.1
Away QB Adjustment
+4.6
Market Regression
+45.6
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
Value
Ptile
11/25
-4.1
23
12/06
-8.8
5
12/12
-10.4
3
12/19
2.9
69
12/26
2.8
68
01/08
-4.1
24
01/16
5.5
85
01/23
3.9
75
09/11
0.4
55
09/18
0.3
54
J. Campbell headshot

J. Campbell

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+13.1
Value
Ptile
10/31
3.7
74
11/07
-4.2
22
11/21
-11.6
2
12/05
3.8
75
12/12
4.1
76
12/19
0.7
52
12/26
0.8
54
01/02
0.4
51
09/12
-0.9
45
09/18
8.4
95

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Raiders Defense
Jets logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
12
29
Yards / Game
26
29
Passing Yards / Game
18
16
Rushing Yards / Game
22
27

EPA

EPA / Play
21
30
EPA / Pass
25
25
EPA / Rush
13
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
30
Interceptions / Game
23
10
Fumbles / Game
29
26
Turnover EPA / Game
2
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
25
4th Down Efficiency
20
5
RZ Efficiency
4
23
Raiders Offense vs Jets Defense
Raiders logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
16
19
Yards / Game
9
4
Passing Yards / Game
26
7
Rushing Yards / Game
6
14

EPA

EPA / Play
10
8
EPA / Pass
13
4
EPA / Rush
8
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
13
Interceptions / Game
27
9
Fumbles / Game
6
2
Turnover EPA / Game
11
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
2
4th Down Efficiency
8
1
RZ Efficiency
23
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
-42
L
L
O
12/12
-4
L
L
U
12/19
5
W
W
O
12/26
-4
L
L
O
01/02
31
W
W
O
01/08
1
W
W
U
01/16
7
W
W
O
01/23
-5
L
L
O
09/11
3
W
L
O
09/18
29
W
W
U
OAK logo

Raiders

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/07
3
W
W
O
11/21
-32
L
L
U
11/28
-16
L
L
O
12/05
15
W
W
U
12/12
-7
L
L
O
12/19
16
W
W
O
12/26
-5
L
L
O
01/02
21
W
W
U
09/12
3
W
W
O
09/18
-3
L
W
O