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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ raiders week 7, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
3-3
38
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
70°F
6 mph
0
OAKRaiders
2-4
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
70°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
14
10
7
7
38
Raiders
0
0
0
0
0

Spread

NYJ logo
-6

Total

OVER
34

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
447
263
Total Plays
70
52
Yards / Play
6.4
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.33
-0.37
Passing Yards
131
144
Comp/Att
9/15(60%)
16/30(53%)
Yards / Pass
8.7
4.8
EPA / Pass
+0.41
-0.84
Rushing Yards
316
119
Rush Attempts
54
19
Yards / Rush
5.9
6.3
EPA / Rush
+0.30
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
26
13
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
16
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
60%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-22.30
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-12
-14
Sack EPA
-1.37
-11.93
Penalties
2
3
Penalty Yards
8
24
Penalty EPA
-1.95
-3.16

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model60.2%
Spread Pick
OAK logo
Raiders+6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+18.4%
Cover Probability
60.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-9
Home nfelo
1,395
Away nfelo
1,501
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+0.9
Home QB Adjustment
-27.1
Away QB Adjustment
-28.0
Market Regression
+41.5
Final Difference
-71.8
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-28.0
Value
Ptile
09/13
1.1
56
09/20
-1.1
43
09/27
-0.6
46
10/04
-10.1
2
10/12
-0.4
47
10/18
-15.8
0
J. Russell headshot

J. Russell

Proj. Value
-5.2
Team Elo Adj
-27.1
Value
Ptile
12/04
-8.5
5
12/14
-1.1
44
12/21
4.4
80
12/28
0.7
56
09/14
-5.9
15
09/20
-9.3
4
09/27
-8.8
5
10/04
-9.0
4
10/11
-7.4
9
10/18
-2.1
37

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Raiders Defense
Jets logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
17
23
Yards / Game
20
25
Passing Yards / Game
32
15
Rushing Yards / Game
1
29

EPA

EPA / Play
20
26
EPA / Pass
25
27
EPA / Rush
6
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
3
Interceptions / Game
27
31
Fumbles / Game
17
23
Turnover EPA / Game
21
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
7
4th Down Efficiency
1
28
RZ Efficiency
16
10
Raiders Offense vs Jets Defense
Raiders logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
31
1
Yards / Game
31
1
Passing Yards / Game
26
2
Rushing Yards / Game
21
7

EPA

EPA / Play
29
1
EPA / Pass
30
1
EPA / Rush
22
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
26
Interceptions / Game
22
14
Fumbles / Game
32
18
Turnover EPA / Game
11
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
1
4th Down Efficiency
18
3
RZ Efficiency
29
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
2-4-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/07
-10
L
L
P
12/14
4
W
L
P
12/21
-10
L
L
P
12/28
-7
L
L
P
09/13
17
W
W
U
09/20
7
W
W
U
09/27
7
W
W
O
10/04
-14
L
L
U
10/12
-4
L
L
O
10/18
-3
L
L
U
OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
2-4-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
-27
L
L
P
12/14
-23
L
L
P
12/21
11
W
W
P
12/28
7
W
W
P
09/14
-4
L
W
O
09/20
3
W
W
U
09/27
-20
L
L
U
10/04
-23
L
L
U
10/11
-37
L
L
O
10/18
4
W
W
U