nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ raiders week 10, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

NYJ logo
NYJJets
4-4
12
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0
16
OAKRaiders
4-5
OAK logo
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
6
3
0
3
12
Raiders
3
3
3
7
16

Spread

OAK logo
+1

Total

UNDER
35.5

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
365
274
Total Plays
63
62
Yards / Play
5.8
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.22
-0.21
Passing Yards
257
126
Comp/Att
23/40(57%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.11
-0.36
Rushing Yards
108
148
Rush Attempts
21
32
Yards / Rush
5.1
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
14
15
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
44%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.67
-10.12
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-6
-27
Sack EPA
-1.66
-5.03
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
83
--
Penalty EPA
-8.61
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
+1.5

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model47.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+51
Home nfelo
1,473
Away nfelo
1,523
Home Field
+83.3
Base HFA
+44.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.4
Time Adj
+23.7
Net QB Adjustment
+17.8
Home QB Adjustment
-52.9
Away QB Adjustment
-70.7
Market Regression
+11.7
Final Difference
19.5
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

Z. Wilson headshot

Z. Wilson

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-70.7
Value
Ptile
11/20
-7.3
8
12/18
-5.0
18
12/22
-11.5
1
09/17
-7.8
9
09/24
-5.5
16
10/01
4.0
75
10/08
-4.3
23
10/15
-6.0
14
10/29
-3.5
26
11/06
-5.9
15
A. O'Connell headshot

A. O'Connell

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-52.9
Value
Ptile
10/01
-6.9
11
11/05
-0.3
47

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Raiders Defense
Jets logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
29
7
Yards / Game
31
14
Passing Yards / Game
30
27
Rushing Yards / Game
22
20

EPA

EPA / Play
31
5
EPA / Pass
32
9
EPA / Rush
32
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
20
Interceptions / Game
22
17
Fumbles / Game
32
21
Turnover EPA / Game
3
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
25
4th Down Efficiency
8
23
RZ Efficiency
32
27
Raiders Offense vs Jets Defense
Raiders logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
23
10
Yards / Game
27
2
Passing Yards / Game
32
4
Rushing Yards / Game
30
25

EPA

EPA / Play
24
4
EPA / Pass
22
3
EPA / Rush
26
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
4
Interceptions / Game
28
5
Fumbles / Game
10
13
Turnover EPA / Game
13
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
12
4th Down Efficiency
6
5
RZ Efficiency
24
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
-17
L
L
U
01/08
-5
L
L
U
09/11
6
W
W
U
09/17
-20
L
L
O
09/24
-5
L
L
U
10/01
-3
L
W
O
10/08
10
W
W
O
10/15
6
W
W
U
10/29
3
W
P
U
11/06
-21
L
L
U
OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/07
-18
L
L
U
09/10
1
W
W
U
09/17
-28
L
L
O
09/24
-5
L
L
U
10/01
-7
L
P
U
10/09
4
W
W
U
10/15
4
W
W
U
10/22
-18
L
L
O
10/30
-12
L
L
U
11/05
24
W
W
U