NYJJets
4-4
12
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
016
OAKRaiders
4-5
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
6
3
0
3
12
Raiders
3
3
3
7
16
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
35.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
365
274
Total Plays
63
62
Yards / Play
5.8
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.22
-0.21
Passing Yards
257
126
Comp/Att
23/40(57%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.11
-0.36
Rushing Yards
108
148
Rush Attempts
21
32
Yards / Rush
5.1
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
15
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
44%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.67
-10.12
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-6
-27
Sack EPA
-1.66
-5.03
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
83
--
Penalty EPA
-8.61
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
+1.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model47.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+51
Home nfelo
1,475
Away nfelo
1,525
Home Field
+82.5
Base HFA
+43.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.3
Time Adj
+23.5
Net QB Adjustment
+18.5
Home QB Adjustment
-52.0
Away QB Adjustment
-70.5
Market Regression
+11.8
Final Difference
19.2
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
Z. Wilson
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-70.5
A. O'Connell
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-52.0
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
7
Yards / Game
31
14
Passing Yards / Game
30
27
Rushing Yards / Game
22
20
EPA
EPA / Play
31
5
EPA / Pass
32
9
EPA / Rush
32
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
20
Interceptions / Game
22
17
Fumbles / Game
32
21
Turnover EPA / Game
3
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
25
4th Down Efficiency
8
23
RZ Efficiency
32
27
Raiders Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
10
Yards / Game
27
2
Passing Yards / Game
32
4
Rushing Yards / Game
30
25
EPA
EPA / Play
24
4
EPA / Pass
22
3
EPA / Rush
26
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
4
Interceptions / Game
28
5
Fumbles / Game
10
13
Turnover EPA / Game
13
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
12
4th Down Efficiency
6
5
RZ Efficiency
24
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Raiders
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-8
O/U