NYJJets
2-1
17
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
51°F
6 mph
34
BALRavens
2-1
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
51°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
7
4
0
0
11
Ravens
11
4
1
0
16
Spread
-5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
150
267
Total Plays
56
73
Yards / Play
2.7
3.7
EPA / Play
-0.75
-0.35
Passing Yards
112
155
Comp/Att
11/35(31%)
10/31(32%)
Yards / Pass
3.2
5.0
EPA / Pass
-1.06
-0.37
Rushing Yards
38
112
Rush Attempts
19
40
Yards / Rush
2.0
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.51
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
7
16
Passing 1st downs
4
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
27%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
18
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
3
2
Turnover EPA
-29.62
-15.53
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-7
-8
Sack EPA
-14.28
-5.14
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
69
46
Penalty EPA
-7.03
-5.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+84
Home nfelo
1,644
Away nfelo
1,620
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-2.5
Home QB Adjustment
+7.7
Away QB Adjustment
+10.3
Market Regression
+7.8
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+10.3
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
3
Yards / Game
26
3
Passing Yards / Game
18
4
Rushing Yards / Game
22
3
EPA
EPA / Play
21
3
EPA / Pass
25
2
EPA / Rush
13
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
16
Interceptions / Game
23
12
Fumbles / Game
29
10
Turnover EPA / Game
2
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
3
4th Down Efficiency
20
20
RZ Efficiency
4
1
Ravens Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
19
Yards / Game
15
4
Passing Yards / Game
13
7
Rushing Yards / Game
12
14
EPA
EPA / Play
15
8
EPA / Pass
12
4
EPA / Rush
18
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
13
Interceptions / Game
5
9
Fumbles / Game
23
2
Turnover EPA / Game
23
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
2
4th Down Efficiency
12
1
RZ Efficiency
17
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U