NYJJets
3-0
10
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
024
NOSaints
3-0
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
0
3
7
0
10
Saints
3
2
0
7
12
Spread
-7.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
244
343
Total Plays
58
64
Yards / Play
4.2
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.50
-0.24
Passing Yards
112
--
Comp/Att
14/27(52%)
20/32(63%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
--
EPA / Pass
-1.18
-0.04
Rushing Yards
132
153
Rush Attempts
27
32
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.22
-0.36
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
18
Passing 1st downs
6
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
25%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-25.61
-5.25
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-26
--
Sack EPA
-9.55
--
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
21
70
Penalty EPA
-13.66
-7.97
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+218
Home nfelo
1,641
Away nfelo
1,511
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+14.9
Home QB Adjustment
+15.3
Away QB Adjustment
+0.5
Market Regression
+4.7
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+0.5
Value
Ptile
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+15.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
18
Yards / Game
20
28
Passing Yards / Game
32
21
Rushing Yards / Game
1
22
EPA
EPA / Play
20
11
EPA / Pass
25
7
EPA / Rush
6
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
30
Interceptions / Game
27
3
Fumbles / Game
17
4
Turnover EPA / Game
21
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
15
4th Down Efficiency
1
9
RZ Efficiency
16
3
Saints Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
1
Yards / Game
1
1
Passing Yards / Game
16
2
Rushing Yards / Game
10
7
EPA
EPA / Play
2
1
EPA / Pass
2
1
EPA / Rush
7
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
26
Interceptions / Game
5
14
Fumbles / Game
28
18
Turnover EPA / Game
30
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
1
4th Down Efficiency
25
3
RZ Efficiency
4
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
1-2-7
O/U
Saints
7-3
SU
8-1-1
ATS
2-1-7
O/U