NYJJets
1-3
13
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
57°F
9 mph
31
PITSteelers
3-1
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
57°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
10
0
0
13
Steelers
7
7
3
14
31
Spread
-9.5
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
316
436
Total Plays
58
72
Yards / Play
5.4
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.17
Passing Yards
244
375
Comp/Att
25/38(66%)
34/47(72%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
8.0
EPA / Pass
-0.00
+0.37
Rushing Yards
72
61
Rush Attempts
17
24
Yards / Rush
4.2
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
30
Passing 1st downs
12
23
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
18%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.14
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-11
-5
Sack EPA
-3.56
-5.14
Penalties
4
1
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+199
Home nfelo
1,615
Away nfelo
1,522
Home Field
+77.3
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+28.4
Home QB Adjustment
+13.4
Away QB Adjustment
-14.9
Market Regression
+39.6
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-14.9
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+13.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
10
Yards / Game
26
10
Passing Yards / Game
15
10
Rushing Yards / Game
11
8
EPA
EPA / Play
30
18
EPA / Pass
31
15
EPA / Rush
9
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
32
Interceptions / Game
32
19
Fumbles / Game
16
15
Turnover EPA / Game
3
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
24
4th Down Efficiency
26
19
RZ Efficiency
32
5
Steelers Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
28
Yards / Game
6
11
Passing Yards / Game
25
12
Rushing Yards / Game
8
13
EPA
EPA / Play
6
23
EPA / Pass
7
30
EPA / Rush
3
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
16
Interceptions / Game
21
29
Fumbles / Game
4
27
Turnover EPA / Game
20
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
19
4th Down Efficiency
11
1
RZ Efficiency
16
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
5-3-2
ATS
4-6
O/U