NYJJets
9-4
22
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
25°F
9 mph
17
PITSteelers
10-3
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
25°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
7
3
7
3
20
Steelers
0
10
7
0
17
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
36
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
276
378
Total Plays
57
72
Yards / Play
4.8
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.09
Passing Yards
170
232
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
23/44(52%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.03
Rushing Yards
106
146
Rush Attempts
27
25
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.11
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
25
Passing 1st downs
8
14
Rushing 1st downs
8
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
46%
65%
3rd Down Conversions
6
11
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
--
-32
Sack EPA
-1.22
-4.47
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
19
35
Penalty EPA
-1.88
-3.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model67.9%
Spread Pick
Steelers-3.5
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
54.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+168
Home nfelo
1,591
Away nfelo
1,562
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+54.6
Home QB Adjustment
+42.7
Away QB Adjustment
-12.0
Market Regression
-40.7
Final Difference
130.4
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-12.0
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+42.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
2
Yards / Game
12
2
Passing Yards / Game
27
17
Rushing Yards / Game
4
1
EPA
EPA / Play
15
2
EPA / Pass
18
4
EPA / Rush
6
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
8
Interceptions / Game
10
10
Fumbles / Game
5
5
Turnover EPA / Game
28
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
5
4th Down Efficiency
21
25
RZ Efficiency
28
4
Steelers Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
5
Yards / Game
14
3
Passing Yards / Game
10
20
Rushing Yards / Game
11
5
EPA
EPA / Play
13
8
EPA / Pass
9
9
EPA / Rush
10
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
29
Interceptions / Game
6
25
Fumbles / Game
18
4
Turnover EPA / Game
20
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
15
4th Down Efficiency
27
12
RZ Efficiency
15
25
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U