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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ steelers week 15, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
9-4
22
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
25°F
9 mph
17
PITSteelers
10-3
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
25°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
7
3
7
3
20
Steelers
0
10
7
0
17

Spread

NYJ logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
36

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
276
378
Total Plays
57
72
Yards / Play
4.8
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.09
Passing Yards
170
232
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
23/44(52%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.03
Rushing Yards
106
146
Rush Attempts
27
25
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.8
EPA / Rush
+0.11
+0.20
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
17
25
Passing 1st downs
8
14
Rushing 1st downs
8
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
46%
65%
3rd Down Conversions
6
11
3rd Down Attempts
13
17
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
--
-32
Sack EPA
-1.22
-4.47
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
19
35
Penalty EPA
-1.88
-3.41

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model68.1%
Spread Pick
PIT logo
Steelers-3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
54.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+170
Home nfelo
1,592
Away nfelo
1,561
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+54.6
Home QB Adjustment
+42.7
Away QB Adjustment
-12.0
Market Regression
-39.6
Final Difference
131.4
Model Spread
-5.5

Quarterbacks

M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-12.0
Value
Ptile
10/03
2.0
62
10/11
-4.5
20
10/17
-5.0
18
10/31
-5.2
17
11/07
3.3
71
11/14
3.9
75
11/21
2.1
62
11/25
-4.1
23
12/06
-8.8
5
12/12
-10.4
3
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+42.7
Value
Ptile
01/03
3.9
75
10/17
4.3
77
10/24
3.8
75
10/31
-4.5
20
11/08
-1.1
42
11/14
2.9
69
11/21
11.8
99
11/28
-2.7
31
12/05
-2.0
36
12/12
-0.4
46

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Steelers Defense
Jets logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
14
2
Yards / Game
12
2
Passing Yards / Game
27
17
Rushing Yards / Game
4
1

EPA

EPA / Play
15
2
EPA / Pass
18
4
EPA / Rush
6
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
8
Interceptions / Game
10
10
Fumbles / Game
5
5
Turnover EPA / Game
28
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
5
4th Down Efficiency
21
25
RZ Efficiency
28
4
Steelers Offense vs Jets Defense
Steelers logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
12
5
Yards / Game
14
3
Passing Yards / Game
10
20
Rushing Yards / Game
11
5

EPA

EPA / Play
13
8
EPA / Pass
9
9
EPA / Rush
10
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
29
Interceptions / Game
6
25
Fumbles / Game
18
4
Turnover EPA / Game
20
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
15
4th Down Efficiency
27
12
RZ Efficiency
15
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
24
W
W
O
10/11
9
W
W
O
10/17
4
W
W
O
10/31
-9
L
L
U
11/07
3
W
L
O
11/14
6
W
W
O
11/21
3
W
L
O
11/25
16
W
W
U
12/06
-42
L
L
O
12/12
-4
L
L
U
PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
-3
L
L
U
10/17
18
W
W
O
10/24
1
W
L
O
10/31
-10
L
L
U
11/08
6
W
W
O
11/14
-13
L
L
O
11/21
32
W
W
U
11/28
3
W
L
U
12/05
3
W
W
U
12/12
16
W
W
U