NYJJets
-
24
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
07
HOUTexans
-
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
7
7
7
24
Texans
0
0
0
1
1
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
462
183
Total Plays
73
48
Yards / Play
6.3
3.8
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.39
Passing Yards
--
145
Comp/Att
18/31(58%)
18/33(55%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.50
Rushing Yards
190
38
Rush Attempts
42
13
Yards / Rush
4.5
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
11
Passing 1st downs
13
7
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
56%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
10
3
3rd Down Attempts
18
10
Red Zone %
50%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.35
-7.06
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-21
Sack EPA
--
-4.56
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
80
37
Penalty EPA
-13.91
-2.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+106
Home nfelo
1,505
Away nfelo
1,483
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+10.5
Home QB Adjustment
+11.1
Away QB Adjustment
+0.6
Market Regression
+27.3
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
No recent game data available
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+11.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Jets Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
16
Yards / Game
20
14
Passing Yards / Game
32
16
Rushing Yards / Game
1
10
EPA
EPA / Play
20
16
EPA / Pass
25
11
EPA / Rush
6
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
27
Interceptions / Game
27
21
Fumbles / Game
17
20
Turnover EPA / Game
21
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
20
4th Down Efficiency
1
7
RZ Efficiency
16
30
Texans Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
1
Yards / Game
5
1
Passing Yards / Game
10
2
Rushing Yards / Game
30
7
EPA
EPA / Play
9
1
EPA / Pass
6
1
EPA / Rush
29
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
26
Interceptions / Game
18
14
Fumbles / Game
25
18
Turnover EPA / Game
10
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
1
4th Down Efficiency
4
3
RZ Efficiency
12
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Jets
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
0-0-10
O/U