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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jets @ texans week 1, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NYJ logo
NYJJets
-
24
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
7
HOUTexans
-
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jets
3
7
7
7
24
Texans
0
0
0
1
1

Spread

NYJ logo
+4.5

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Jets logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
462
183
Total Plays
73
48
Yards / Play
6.3
3.8
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.39
Passing Yards
--
145
Comp/Att
18/31(58%)
18/33(55%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.4
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.50
Rushing Yards
190
38
Rush Attempts
42
13
Yards / Rush
4.5
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Jets logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
22
11
Passing 1st downs
13
7
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
56%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
10
3
3rd Down Attempts
18
10
Red Zone %
50%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
--
Negative Plays
Jets logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-8.35
-7.06
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-21
Sack EPA
--
-4.56
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
80
37
Penalty EPA
-13.91
-2.41

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+106
Home nfelo
1,505
Away nfelo
1,483
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+10.5
Home QB Adjustment
+11.1
Away QB Adjustment
+0.6
Market Regression
+27.3
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

M. Sanchez headshot

M. Sanchez

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
No recent game data available
M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+11.1
Value
Ptile
09/21
-9.5
3
09/28
11.9
99
10/12
3.2
73
10/19
4.4
80
10/26
8.4
95
11/02
-5.4
13
12/07
8.2
95
12/14
2.2
67
12/21
-3.5
25
12/28
8.8
95

Team Matchup Ranks

Jets Offense vs Texans Defense
Jets logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
17
16
Yards / Game
20
14
Passing Yards / Game
32
16
Rushing Yards / Game
1
10

EPA

EPA / Play
20
16
EPA / Pass
25
11
EPA / Rush
6
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
27
Interceptions / Game
27
21
Fumbles / Game
17
20
Turnover EPA / Game
21
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
20
4th Down Efficiency
1
7
RZ Efficiency
16
30
Texans Offense vs Jets Defense
Texans logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
10
1
Yards / Game
5
1
Passing Yards / Game
10
2
Rushing Yards / Game
30
7

EPA

EPA / Play
9
1
EPA / Pass
6
1
EPA / Rush
29
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
26
Interceptions / Game
18
14
Fumbles / Game
25
18
Turnover EPA / Game
10
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
1
4th Down Efficiency
4
3
RZ Efficiency
12
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYJ logo

Jets

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
4
W
L
P
11/02
9
W
W
P
11/09
44
W
W
P
11/13
3
W
W
P
11/23
21
W
W
P
11/30
-17
L
L
P
12/07
-10
L
L
P
12/14
4
W
L
P
12/21
-10
L
L
P
12/28
-7
L
L
P
HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
29
W
W
P
11/02
-7
L
L
P
11/09
-28
L
L
P
11/16
-6
L
W
P
11/23
10
W
W
P
12/01
13
W
W
P
12/07
3
W
W
P
12/14
1
W
W
P
12/21
-11
L
L
P
12/28
7
W
W
P